Incident: On January 16, 2024, Andaville released a performance forecast. In 2023, it is expected to achieve net profit of 110 million yuan to 120 million yuan, net profit after deducting non-return to mother of 109.76 million yuan to 11.976 million yuan, and net profit after deducting net profit from non-return to mother lost 45.8,154 million yuan and 49.8197 million yuan respectively for the same period in 2022, successfully turning a loss into a profit.
Single quarter: The company's net profit for the fourth quarter of 2023 was 90.88 million yuan to 100.88 million yuan, an increase of 15.5815,400 yuan to 16,5815,400 yuan over the same period last year, and net profit after deducting non-return to mother was 90.76 million yuan to 100.76 million yuan, an increase of 128.32 million yuan to 138.32 million yuan over the same period last year.
Revenue increased dramatically, and profits turned losses into profits, mainly due to the continuous release of key models supported by the company and the winning and delivery of major projects during the reporting period, which led to a sharp year-on-year increase in the airborne equipment business; the civil aviation business also achieved year-on-year growth due to flight recovery. The company strengthened talent reserves and team building, continuously improved quality and cycle management levels, strengthened industry and financial integration and optimized cost control capabilities, providing a good guarantee for business growth and profitability in 2023.
Composite materials capacity expansion, low-altitude economy may become a new growth point for the company's civilian products business. Tianjin Nestrel, a wholly-owned subsidiary of the company, mainly develops, produces, and processes aeronautical composite structural components. After initial technology accumulation, it already has comprehensive development technology and process capabilities. Nestera has the ability to produce some composite parts for flying cars. Currently, related products are in the business contacts and technical exchange stage.
Investment advice: We expect the company to achieve net profit of 1.19/1.36/165 million yuan in 23-25, corresponding EPS of 0.47/0.53/0.65 yuan/share, respectively. Considering factors such as the steady release of the company's airborne equipment with the model and the gradual development of composite material capabilities, we downgraded the rating to “increase our holdings.”
Risk warning: Risks such as downstream model volumes falling short of expectations, fluctuations in upstream raw materials, loss of talent, failure to issue orders in a timely manner, and unconfirmed revenue.