Global macroscopic
Before Thursday's market, the three major futures indices had mixed ups and downs, and NASDAQ futures rose nearly 1%
Less than expected, the number of US jobless claims last week was 187,000
The number of jobless claims in the US until the beginning of the week of January 13 was 187,000, a new low since the week of September 24, 2022; it is expected to be 207,000, compared with the previous value of 202,000.
The “Panic Index” once hit a two-month high. Are US stocks about to fall into turmoil?
The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), known as the Wall Street “Panic Index”, briefly rose above the 200-day moving average on Wednesday, and the index has not closed above this line since October last year. The VIX Index is an indicator that measures the 30-day implied volatility of the S&P 500 index based on the price of off-price options. The index slightly approached 16 in early trading, reaching the highest level since November 10. This level means that 1% daily fluctuation may occur in the future, then decline somewhat.
CEO Komo warns: Be cautious in the next two years, strong risks will impact the US economy
J.P. Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon said he is cautious about the US economy over the next two years due to a combination of financial and geopolitical risks. Dimon mentioned things including the situation in Ukraine, terrorist activities in Israel and the Red Sea region, and quantitative austerity. In particular, he pointed out that there are still questions about how quantitative austerity works, which means it may not be entirely clear how quantitative austerity affects the economy.
Expectations of interest rate cuts blown up? Goldman Sachs: We are still optimistic
Recently, European and American central banks have taken turns to “release eagles”, hampering expectations of interest rate cuts in the market. US stocks and bonds have been double killed in the past few days, and the prospects for major central banks to cut interest rates are confusing. In its latest report this week, Goldman Sachs optimistically pointed out that although the recent rebound in inflation is worrying, the overall downward trend has not changed, and the overheated labor market is returning to balance, all of which support the arrival of interest rate cuts. Regarding the path of interest rate cuts by major central banks, Goldman Sachs pointed out that the Federal Reserve may start cutting interest rates in March. This year, it will cut interest rates by 25 basis points 5 times, which is not as aggressive as market expectations. The reason is that the steady growth of the US economy supports a series of gradual interest rate cuts.
OPEC predicts an increase in oil demand of 1.85 million barrels per day next year, in stark contrast to the International Energy Agency
In its monthly report released on Wednesday, OPEC said global oil demand will increase by 1.85 million b/d in 2025, reaching 106.21 million barrels per day. For 2024, OPEC maintained its forecast for oil demand growth of 2.25 million b/d last month unchanged. According to OPEC's latest forecast, global oil demand will grow strongly in 2025. This forecast is in line with OPEC's view that oil use will continue to grow in the next 20 years, but it is in contrast to the predictions of the International Energy Agency and other agencies. According to information, the International Energy Agency predicts that oil demand will peak before 2030 as the world shifts to cleaner energy.
Hot news
Star Technology stocks collectively strengthened before the market, and semiconductor stocks had the highest gains
TSMC's previous increase exceeded 7%, and Q4 revenue and net profit both exceeded expectations. The Q1 guidance for '24 was positive
$Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM.US)$It rose 7.18% to $110.34 in the premarket. According to financial reports, TSMC's Q4 revenue was NT$625.529 billion, which was basically the same as the previous year, but exceeded market expectations of NT$618.3 billion. Net profit was NT$238.712 billion, down 19.3% year on year, but far exceeded market expectations of NT$224.13 billion. Regarding the 2024 outlook, TSMC expects revenue growth of at least 8% in the first quarter of this year, reaching 18 billion US dollars to 18.8 billion US dollars, compared to an estimated 18.2 billion US dollars. Its capital expenditure budget is $28 billion to $32 billion, which is likely higher than the $30 billion in 2023.
Tesla officially announced that the Cybertruck national tour will soon begin
$Tesla (TSLA.US)$It was announced that the electric pickup truck Cybertruck national tour will soon begin. The registration deadline is March 31, and the city where the new car will debut will be decided based on the registration results. Tesla CEO Musk previously wrote, “It will be very difficult for Cybertruck to be legally on the road in China, but it can deliver some prototypes to everyone for display.”
The US court reinstated the sales ban, and Apple “ordered everything” to cancel the watch's blood oxygen monitoring function
On January 17, local time, American Health Technology Co., Ltd.$Masimo (MASI.US)$It was announced that it welcomed the latest ruling of the US Federal Circuit Court of Appeals as the court reinstated the ban on two high-end Apple smartwatches. On the same day, Apple also told the media that it will begin selling versions of the Apple Watch Series 9 and Apple Watch Ultra 2 in the US without the ability to monitor blood oxygen levels. The adjusted versions are scheduled to be sold in official physical stores and official websites on Thursday (1/18).
Apple's Vision Pro was the first to throw cold water before its big launch: Netflix refused to develop an app for it
According to reports,$Netflix (NFLX.US)$It chose not to design a dedicated app for Apple's upcoming Vision Pro headset, nor was it intended to support its existing iPad apps to run on this platform. Although the impact of this move on Netflix is unknown, it is a major omission for the $3,499 headset because Apple relies on entertainment content to help promote this emerging and expensive technology, and Netflix is a must-have streaming service for many consumers.
Google CEO warns employees: there will be more layoffs this year
$Alphabet-A (GOOGL.US)$CEO Sundar Pichai told Google employees in a memo: “We have ambitious goals and will invest in our major priorities this year.” He also said that the company's leadership is preparing to share this year's AI goals this week and will announce OKRs (goals and key results) for 2024. “The reality is that in order to be able to create this kind of investment, we have to make tough choices,” he added. “For some teams, this means layoffs, including removing layers to simplify execution and increase efficiency.”
Trump's concept stock Phunware soared again before the market
After yesterday's stock price correction,$Phunware (PHUN.US)$It rose more than 27% before the market. According to the news, the company announced on January 16, local time, that it has signed a final agreement to issue and sell 87.5 million common shares (or warrants to replace common shares) by registering direct issuance. According to NASDAQ regulations, the market price is 0.08 US dollars per share. The company said total revenue is expected to be around $7 million.
Prager Energy fell more than 15% before the market! Proposed issuance and sale of $1 billion in shares
$Plug Power (PLUG.US)$It was revealed in a filing with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on Wednesday that the company and B. Riley has signed a marketing agreement where the company will raise up to $1 billion through the issuance and sale of shares.
Tucson will continue to drop more than 7% in the premarket and will be delisted from NASDAQ
Yesterday's sharp drop of more than 46%$TuSimple (TSP.US)$The pre-market decline continued to fall by 7.68% to $0.35. According to the news, the company announced on Wednesday that it has decided to voluntarily delist from NASDAQ and terminate registration with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Tucson Future said in a statement: Since the company's initial public offering (IPO) in 2021, there have been significant changes in the capital market. , the company's valuation and liquidity declined.
Focus on China Securities
Popular Chinese securities rallied collectively before the market
Top 20 pre-market turnover of US stocks
US Stock Macro Calendar Reminder
21:30 Number of jobless claims in the US at the beginning of the week ending January 13
21:30 US January Philadelphia Federal Reserve Manufacturing Index
21:30 The annualized monthly rate of new home starts in the US in December
21:30 Preliminary monthly rate for US construction permits in December
Changes in US EIA crude oil inventories for the week ending January 12 at 00:00 the next day
The next day at 01:05 at the 2024 FOMC ticketing committee and Atlanta Federal Reserve Chairman Bostic delivered a speech at the Atlanta Business Chronicle 2024 Economic Outlook luncheon
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