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凌雄科技(2436.HK)2023预点评:变现业务(设备订阅+IT服务)中低速增长 新增客户数继续大幅增长

Ling Xiong Technology (2436.HK) 2023 Pre-Review: Monetization business (equipment subscription+IT service) is growing at a medium to low rate, and the number of new customers continues to grow dramatically

海通國際 ·  Jan 18

Pre-review of 2023 results. Based on the economic environment in 2023 and the performance of the first half of 2023, we judge that the company's overall business revenue growth rate for the whole of 2023 is likely to be between 5% and 10%. Among them, the growth rate of equipment subscriptions and IT service revenue may be basically the same as in the first half of the year, and the recycling business will resume growth. Furthermore, due to the year-on-year decline in the company's gross margin in the first half of the year, we expect that the gross margin for the whole year should not exceed 2022. If estimated conservatively, it may be basically the same as the gross margin for the first half of the year, and the company's net profit will continue to lose money throughout the year.

Customer growth accelerated in 2023. In the first half of 2023, the number of new subscribers of the company increased significantly compared to last year. Considering the weak economic cycle, it often stimulates customers to try more actively to adopt the equipment subscription model (high flexibility, company personnel fluctuations, which can effectively reduce the risk of acquisition costs). Therefore, we expect that the number of new customers added by the company throughout 2023 will continue the trend of the first half of the year, and even increase more than in the first half of the year.

Government policy guidance can accelerate the pace of device subscription conversion. In November 2023, the Guangdong Provincial Government issued a notice on pilot equipment leasing in the fields of education, medical care, and science and technology. In addition, the company cooperated with the government to build a pilot equipment leasing platform in Heze City, Shandong Province.

Comment: We continue to be optimistic about the company's future growth, even if its performance may fluctuate in the short term. Also, according to general practice in this industry, when the number of subscription devices reaches 1 million, a profit of about 100 million can theoretically be generated. Therefore, we have always believed that the company's business characteristics determine that the process of increasing the company's revenue conversion rate with incremental stock transfer is a process of quantitative to qualitative change. We continue to monitor the growth in the size of subscription devices brought about by the rapid growth in the number of its customers, that is, the inflection point of the scale effect.

Risk warning: The conversion rate of the company's customers fell short of expectations, causing its monetization business (equipment subscription+IT services) revenue growth rate to fall short of expectations; the company's EBITDA level fell short of expectations; and the company's total revenue growth rate fell short of expectations.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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