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研报掘金|中金:下调康师傅目标价至10.5港元 下调2023至24年盈测

Research Report Nuggets | CICC: Lowering Master Kong's Target Price to HK$10.5, Lowering Profitability Forecast for 2023-24

Gelonghui Finance ·  Jan 18 14:28

CICC published a rating report. It is estimated that Master Kong's revenue in 2023 will rise 2.9% year-on-year, and net profit will increase 21.5% to RMB 3.2 billion; corresponding to a 1.1% year-on-year decrease in revenue and a 13.1% increase in net profit for the second half of 2023, which is basically in line with market expectations and lower than the company's mid-year guidelines, mainly due to beverage sales falling short of expectations in the third quarter. CICC anticipates that the company is expected to achieve low to medium single-digit revenue growth this year. Among them, the beverage industry benefits from the unsweetened trend, and the immediate demand for going out is expected to return to steady growth at the annual level, while instant noodles are expected to maintain steady growth at a lower base in 2023.

Considering that demand fell short of expectations, CICC lowered the company's profit forecast for 2023 by 10.5% to $3.2 billion and by 12.9% to $3.5 billion in 2024. At the same time, it introduced a profit forecast of $3.6 billion for 2025, and lowered its target price by 30% to HK$10.5 billion. The bank said that the downside risk basically reflects that the company is expected to maintain the 100% dividend rate unchanged, corresponding to a 24-year stock interest rate of more than 8%. The stock interest rate is highly attractive, the investment value is evident, and the “outperforming industry” rating is maintained.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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