中高端显示屏产品带动高精度、高价值量面板掩模版需求。高精度掩模版是生产AMOLED/LTPS 及高分辨率TFT-LCD 显示屏的关键要素，中国大陆掩模版的发展滞后于平板显示投资的增长，特别在AMOLED/LTPS 等高精度掩模版上国产化率不足，仍严重依赖进口。为适应国内平板显示行业的快速发展，凭借多年技术积累和成熟的生产工艺，公司合肥工厂聚焦于提升中高端平板显示掩模版的技术和产能，成功开发6 代AMOLED 高精度掩模版打破国外垄断，进一步缩小与海外竞争对手的差距。随着新增产能逐步释放以及产品结构向中高端升级，我们预计公司平板显示掩模版未来2-3 年将保持约20-30%左右的收入增速，市占率稳步提升。It is one of the earliest and largest mask plate manufacturers established in China. Since its establishment in 1997, the company has always been committed to the development and manufacture of mask plates. It is one of the earliest and largest mask plate manufacturers established in China. Its products are mainly used in flat panel displays, semiconductor chips, touch controls, circuit boards and other industries.
Benefiting from increased demand for mask products from downstream manufacturers, 23H1 achieved revenue of 417 million yuan, +22.10% YoY; continuous optimization of superimposed products and business structures, and gross margin increased 1.04 percentage points to 24.73% year over year; net profit to mother was 53 million yuan, +36.89% YoY.
By application area, 23H1's revenue from tablet displays, semiconductor chips and other industries was 333/0.62/018 million yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of +30.61%/23.35%/-36.75%, respectively, accounting for 80%/15%/4% of total revenue, respectively. Of these, flat panel displays and semiconductor chips together accounted for ~ 95%.
High-end display products drive demand for high-precision, high-value panel mask versions. High-precision mask versions are a key element in the production of AMOLED/LTPS and high-resolution TFT-LCD displays. The development of mask versions in mainland China lags behind the growth in flat panel display investment. In particular, the localization rate for high-precision mask versions such as AMOLED/LTPS is insufficient, and they still rely heavily on imports. In order to adapt to the rapid development of the domestic flat panel display industry, with years of technology accumulation and mature production technology, the company's Hefei factory focused on improving the technology and production capacity of high-end flat panel display masks, successfully developing a 6-generation AMOLED high-precision mask version to break foreign monopolies and further narrow the gap with overseas competitors. With the gradual release of new production capacity and the upgrading of the product structure to the middle and high-end, we expect the company's tablet display mask version to maintain a revenue growth rate of about 20-30% over the next 2-3 years, and the market share will increase steadily.
The release of new production capacity in fab factories has opened up an incremental market, and domestic semiconductor mask versions have ushered in a golden period of development. As semiconductor products continue to introduce new chip designs such as new processes, new structures, and new materials, or when production lines need to be expanded, wafer manufacturers need to use new mask plates to carry out large-scale semiconductor production, and this is where the need to open a new version arises. According to the company's 2023 semi-annual report, citing SEMI data, the global semiconductor chip mask market was about 5.2 billion US dollars in 2022, and the market size is expected to reach 5.4 billion US dollars in 2023. The company has achieved large-scale mass production of 180nm process node semiconductor chip mask plates, and is simultaneously carrying out process development for 130nm-65nm semiconductor chip mask plates and mask plate process development plans required for 28nm. We believe that with the technical strength, large-scale manufacturing advantages, financial advantages, and production capacity strength of new production lines accumulated in the field of mask plates, the company is expected to further expand the semiconductor mask market, and future growth can be expected.
Profit forecasting and valuation. We expect the company's revenue for 2023-2025 to be $9.32/11.12/1,401 million yuan, net profit to mother of $132/1.73 billion, and corresponding EPS of 0.49/0.65/0.83 yuan.
We used the PE valuation method. Considering the company's leading position in the field of tablet display mask plates and the growth momentum brought about by the expansion of semiconductor mask production, we believe that the company's reasonable market value range is 60.40-6.903 billion yuan, corresponding to a reasonable value range of 22.64-25.87 yuan/share, giving the first coverage a “superior to the market” rating.
Risk warning: 1) The launch rate of new downstream display panel products is weaker than expected; 2) customer expansion falls short of expectations; 3) excessive market competition.
