occurrences
On January 15, 2024, the company announced that it is expected to achieve net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies of 470 million yuan to 530 million yuan in 2023, an increase of 288.4633 million yuan to 348.4633 million yuan over the previous year, an increase of 158.90% to 191.95% year on year.
The company is expected to achieve net profit of 460 million yuan to 52 million yuan after deducting non-recurring profit and loss attributable to shareholders of listed companies in 2023, which is expected to increase 293.246 million yuan to 353.246 million yuan over the previous year, an increase of 175.86% to 211.84% year on year; it is expected to achieve operating income of 1.76 million yuan to 1870 million yuan.
Comment:
The performance slightly exceeded expectations, and it is expected that the shingles vaccine will continue to be released
According to the announcement, in 2023, the company achieved operating income of 1.76 to 1.78 billion yuan, with a median value of about 1.77 billion yuan; realized net profit of 4.6 to 5.2 billion yuan without return to mother, with a median value of about 490 million yuan. The performance was in line with our expectations. The 23Q4 company achieved operating income of about 5.2 to 63 million yuan, and net profit after deducting non-return to mother about 130 to 190 million yuan.
Replacement volumes can be expected, and the product matrix continues to be rich. During the reporting period, the company's live attenuated herpes zoster vaccine was approved for marketing, completed admission to 30 provinces, autonomous regions, and municipalities directly under the Central Government, and was sold and vaccinated one after another. In addition, the company increased capital and acquired shares in Communication Biotech, laid out an mRNA platform, and continued to enrich the product pipeline.
Profit forecasting and investment advice: maintaining a “buy” rating
The company has performed well since the launch of major vaccine products. We are optimistic about the company's long-term growth. According to the performance forecast, we are expected to achieve total operating revenue of 17.37/25.97/3.148 billion yuan (previous value of 16.82/24.86/3.148 billion yuan), +62.1%/49.5%/21.2% YoY (previous value +57.0%/47.8%/26.6%); it will achieve net profit of 4.31/7.01/913 billion yuan (previous value 4.10/ 6.46/884 million yuan), +137.4%/62.6%/30.3% (previous value +125.6%/57.7%/35.3%), maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk warning
The marketing of new products fell short of expectations; product testing and approval fell short of expectations, etc.