The company's 2023 performance maintained high growth and maintained a “buy” rating
The company announced its 2023 annual results forecast. In 2023, the company achieved operating income of 20.97 to 231 billion yuan, YoY +42.77% ~ 57.27%; realized net profit of 36.1-4.15 billion yuan, YoY +53.44% ~ 76.39%; deducted non-net profit of 3.3 to 3.8 billion yuan, YoY +56.69% ~ 80.43%; corresponding earnings per share.
Among them, 2023Q4 achieved revenue of 63.82 to 8.512 billion yuan, YoY +36.48% ~ 82.04%, QoQ +3.57% ~ 38.14%; realized net profit to mother of 7.3 to 1.27 billion yuan, YoY +8.87% ~ 89.88%, QoQ -33.11% ~ +16.66%; deducted non-net profit of 6.6~1.16 billion yuan, YoY +4.81% ~ 84.22%, QoQ -35.99% ~ 12.51%. According to the company's performance forecast guidelines, we raised the company's profit forecast. The estimated net profit for 2023-2025 is 38.26/51.96/7.316 billion yuan (previous value was 35.79/48.42/6.671 billion yuan), and the 2023-2025 EPS is expected to be 7.22/9.8/13.8 yuan (previous value was 6.75/9.13/12.58 yuan), and the PE corresponding to the current stock price is 35.0/25.8/18.3 times. As a domestic semiconductor equipment leader, we are optimistic that the company will fully benefit from the domestic substitution process and maintain a “buy” rating.
New orders exceeded 30 billion yuan in 2023, and the market share of various semiconductor devices continued to increase
The company signed more than 30 billion yuan in new orders in 2023, of which the integrated circuit sector accounts for more than 70%. The company's business performance increased year-on-year in 2023, mainly due to the continuous increase in product market recognition. Dozens of process equipment such as etching, film, cleaning and furnace tubes used in high-end integrated circuits have achieved technological breakthroughs and mass production applications, and process coverage and market share have all been greatly increased. As the company continues to promote cost reduction and efficiency, diversified supply chain support capabilities are continuously enhanced, mass production and delivery levels have been effectively improved, and scale effects are gradually showing.
Mainland China is leading the expansion of fab production, and the company continues to benefit from equipment localization. According to SEMI forecasts, the global semiconductor monthly wafer (WPM) production capacity in 2023 is 29.6 million wafers (calculated in 200mm equivalent), +5.5% year over year; it is also expected to be +6.4% year over year in 2024, breaking the 30 million monthly mark for the first time. Among them, mainland China's wafer production capacity was +12% YoY in 2023, reaching 7.6 million wafers per month; in 2024, production capacity was +13% YoY, reaching 8.6 million wafers per month. With the acceleration of domestic substitution in China's semiconductor industry chain and the recovery of industry capital expenditure, the company is expected to continue to benefit as a leading local semiconductor equipment leader.
Risk warning: Industry recovery falls short of expectations, customer imports fall short of expectations, product development falls short of expectations.