Core views:
The market share of high-end IC equipment has increased dramatically, and orders in '23 have surpassed expectations. The company announced its 2023 performance forecast. In 2023, the company expects to achieve operating income of 20.97 billion yuan - 23.10 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 42.77%-57.27%; expected to achieve net profit of 3.61 billion yuan - 4.15 billion yuan, an increase of 53.44%-76.39%; and expected to achieve net profit without return to mother of 3.30 billion yuan - 3.80 billion yuan, an increase of 56.69%-80.43% year-on-year. In 2023, the company achieved technological breakthroughs and mass production applications of dozens of process equipment used in the high-end integrated circuit field, such as etching, film, cleaning, and furnace tubes. The process coverage and market share were greatly increased. New orders exceeded 30 billion yuan, of which the integrated circuit sector accounted for more than 70%, and orders exceeded market expectations.
The platform-based layout achieves full coverage of various processes, and the market share of semiconductor equipment leaders continues to increase.
According to the company's official website and 22 annual report, at present, the company has formed full coverage of etching processes such as silicon, deep silicon, metal, medium, compound semiconductors, etc.; sales of 12-inch deep silicon etching machines have broken through 100 cavities; more than 20 products such as copper interconnection/aluminum/tungsten film deposition have become preferred machines for mainstream domestic chip manufacturers; 23 types of serialized vertical furnace equipment such as oxidation, annealing, and film deposition have basically achieved full coverage of the vertical furnace process and have become mass production equipment for mainstream domestic customers; it has released more than 20 models such as SiC epitaxial, silicon-based GaN, and silicon epitaxial Mass-produced epitaxial equipment to achieve Full coverage of epitaxial process equipment. With the expansion of downstream wafer production lines and the acceleration of domestic substitution, the company, as a leader in local semiconductor equipment, has broad room for future growth.
The scale effect is gradually showing, and profitability continues to be improved. The company continues to promote cost reduction and efficiency. The diversified supply chain support capacity is continuously enhanced, the level of mass production and delivery has been effectively improved, the scale effect is gradually showing, and profitability continues to improve.
Profit forecasting and investment advice. The company is expected to have revenue of 220.21/305.58/38.439 billion yuan in 23-25 years, and net profit of 38.81/57.28/7.644 billion yuan to mother, maintaining the view that the company has a reasonable value of 416.96 yuan/share unchanged and maintaining a “buy” rating.
Risk warning. The industry cycle fluctuates; market competition intensifies; market development falls short of expectations.