Former US Republican President Trump, who was once unobtrusive, has never been willing to accept the fact that he lost to Biden in the 2020 presidential election. He is still active in the US political scene. Today, he may actually be back...

On Monday evening local time, Trump won a big victory in the Iowa Republican Party primary election, crushing his opponent by an overwhelming advantage, and taking the first step towards his goal of returning to the White House.

Iowa has historically played a huge role in presidential campaigns. According to the American Broadcasting Corporation (ABC), Iowa has been the first US voting state to hold a presidential nomination campaign since 1972. This made the state's election results have a huge impact on subsequent public discussions and media coverage of the presidential election.

On the Democratic side, Biden is running for re-election. Since challengers within the party have little chance of replacing Biden, the Democratic primary election is basically “going through the motions”. The party's first primary election will be held in South Carolina on February 3. Therefore, the current presidential election is likely to be a “second battle” between Biden and Trump.

According to CNN reports, Trump lost to Biden in the 2020 presidential election and is now making a strong comeback, winning an overwhelming victory in the primary election. If he can represent the Republican Party and defeat Biden and re-enter the White House this year, it will set a unique record in US presidential history.

Before Trump, only the 22nd US President, Cleveland, was in charge of the White House again after losing re-election, and no one else could return after a break in his term.

What are the highlights of the next election campaign?

Although Trump's election campaign started well, disputes over his eligibility still plague him. He is currently involved in 4 criminal cases and has been charged with 91 counts, and his eligibility for election has been challenged by law. The US Supreme Court will hear oral arguments in February, and its ruling may have a significant impact on this year's general election.

According to CITIC Construction Investment, the case includes a total of five stages: completion of investigation, filing of charges, determination of trial date, trial process, and issuance of judgment. Currently, the Georgia election case is in the filing stage, and trial dates for the confidential documents case, falsification of commercial records case, and capitol attack case have already been determined.

Analysts believe that although Trump's position and influence within the Republican Party is unquestionable, considering the legal and political disputes involving him, his path to seeking nominations will not be easy in the future.

Also, looking back at the election process and timeline, Dongwu Securities suggests focusing mainly on “Super Tuesday” on March 5, the final nominations of candidates from both parties in July-August, and the November presidential election.

The reason why March 5 is important is that in the end, most of the candidates nominated by the party locked in the victory for the general election candidates ahead of schedule on this day, and market fluctuations are likely to increase further.

For example, in 2020, although Sanders's approval rating was always higher than Biden's approval rating before “Super Tuesday,” the effects of Sanders' conversion of approval ratings to votes were limited. Eventually, Biden overtook Sanders as the final candidate nominated by the party. US stocks rose nearly 5% during the day.

“Trump concept stocks” have collectively changed, what is the market expecting?

As the prelude to the US election officially began, the US stock market took the lead in a wave of hype about the subject. There is no doubt that the protagonist is former President Trump, who is active on the front line of the election.

Overnight in the US stock market, the sharp rise was the acquisition of companies with special purposes$Digital World Acquisition Corp (DWAC.US)$This shell company is seeking a reverse takeover and listing with Trump's social media platform Truth Social. Yesterday, its stock price surged 29% to a six-month high.

Previously, DWAC was unable to complete the merger and acquisition as scheduled due to the US SEC alleging that DWAC's 2021 IPO was involved in fraud. Currently, it is expected that the M&A transaction will only be completed in the first quarter of 2024.

In addition to DWAC, a big data analysis company known as “Cambridge Analytics 2.0”$Phunware (PHUN.US)$The highest daily increase was over 500%. The company developed campaign apps for the Trump team in the 2020 presidential election.

Another AI solutions company$Remark Holdings (MARK.US)$There was also an increase of close to 50%, but although this company has always been listed as Trump's concept stock, the only known link is that many of Trump's hotels have been certified by Sharecare, and Remark Holdings holds part of Sharecare's shares.

Undoubtedly, the wide intraday swings in these stocks were entirely driven by news from outside the market. Some people say that people who will pay for Trump's media dreams are more likely to be investing not in stocks, but in political ideals.

It is worth mentioning that since there is no limit on the rate of rise or fall, there are many cases where US stocks soar and fall. Basically, they don't look at fundamentals; investors need to be aware of risks.

Biden and Trump are on the same stage, who can have the last laugh? With Wall Street riding the waves and the presidential election, let's all look forward to some exciting stories this time around.

Editor/Corrine