The range [y] of BL total BL during the long TA period is 30.35 to 3.376 billion yuan. The market share of the company's intelligent logistics systems continues to increase and new applications continue to be expanded. It is estimated that in 2023-2025, the company's revenue will be 18.65/21.80/2,655 billion yuan, respectively, and YOY will be 17%/17%/19%, respectively, maintaining relatively rapid growth. In 2023-2025, net profit attributable to mother was $1.56/1.96/233 million, respectively.
Based on the maximum total share capital of 162 million shares after issuance, the corresponding EPS was 0.96/1.21/1.44 yuan, respectively. Based on FCFF and PE estimates, the overall forward fair value range is 30.35 to 3.376 billion yuan. The price-earnings ratio multiples ranges of the corresponding company's net profit to mother in 2022 and net profit without return to mother were 23.2-25.8 times and 24.9-27.7 times, respectively; corresponding to 19.5 -21.6 times in 2023 (projected net profit to mother of 156 million yuan).
The long-term space is vast and can be expected, and the penetration rate is expected to increase at an accelerated pace. Intelligent warehousing logistics is a golden track for rapid development. According to data from the China Warehousing and Distribution Association and AIoT, the size of China's smart warehousing logistics market grew from 62 billion yuan in 2019 to 95 billion yuan in 2022, with a CAGR of 15.29% in 2019-2022. Driven by global digitalization trends and conditions such as labor shortages and rising labor costs, the market size is expected to expand further. It is estimated that by 2027, the global warehouse automation market will reach the milestone of 100 billion yuan; the domestic smart warehousing and logistics market will exceed 100 billion yuan in 2023, with a compound growth rate of 21.58% in 2023-2027E.
Deeply involved in the logistics field for 40 years, it is a leading solution provider with both software and hardware. The company's products are diverse, covering different types from hardware to software, from dedicated to general, and from solutions to after-sales operation and maintenance. The solution covers the entire process+full life cycle. In recent years, the total cost of logistics in the country has been high. In absolute terms, the total cost of social logistics in China reached 17.8 trillion yuan in 2022, an increase of 4.40% over the previous year; in terms of proportion, the ratio of total social logistics expenses to GDP in 2022 was 14.7%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points over the previous year. In the context of rising labor and land costs, the demand for falling logistics costs combined with the advantages of intelligent automation forms an important logic for increasing the penetration rate of the intelligent warehousing and logistics industry.
Fund-raising projects: Financing to expand the production of logistics equipment and enhance self-production capacity of core hardware. The company plans to publicly issue no more than 40.5569 million RMB common shares (A shares) to the public, investing in: 1) Huzhou Intelligent Logistics Equipment Industrialization Project 2) R&D Center Construction Project 3) Marketing and Service Network Construction Project 4) Supplemental Liquidity Project.
Risk warning: Changes in profit forecasting assumptions, higher valuations than the average of comparable peers, fluctuations in the secondary market and comparable companies, declining business performance, poor development of new markets, falling short of expectations, delayed technology research and development, receivables and inventory impairment analysis, changes in tax incentives, risk of changes in export tax rebate policies, shortage of talents, macroeconomic fluctuations, increased market competition, raw material supply and price fluctuations, RMB exchange rate fluctuations, risk of failure in promotion of fund-raising projects, risk of failure in issuance.