Key points of investment:
Incident: The company announced its 2023 annual results forecast, which is in line with expectations. According to the company's announcement, 1) Net profit due to mother is expected to be 86-960 million yuan in 2023, an increase of 29.13%-44.14% over the previous year, with a median value of 901 million yuan. 2) The estimated net profit for 2023Q4 is 200-30 million yuan, with a median value of 250 million yuan, which is basically the same as the previous month. 3) Main reason: Demand for new energy vehicles is strong, and the company's overall production and sales volume have increased to a certain extent compared to the same period last year. We expect annual sales of 385,000 tons; the company vigorously promotes production efficiency, energy saving and carbon reduction, and the production side carries out on-site operation improvements, technical process optimization, management improvement, etc., to accelerate efficiency and improve efficiency, and promote technological transformation and energy saving control of various key processes.
Data centers and energy storage liquid cooling provide incremental market space, and the company already has reserves of related products. 1) Demand for AI capacity data centers is accelerating, the power density of single cabinets is increasing rapidly, and energy storage battery discharge can be expected as lithium prices fall. There is a clear trend of switching from air cooling to liquid cooling under high heat dissipation efficiency requirements, and there is a lot of room for future prospects for the company's liquid cooling board material products. 2) The company actively develops heat dissipation materials in the field of energy storage represented by expansion board materials, large-size water-cooled plate materials, etc., as well as heat dissipation materials for 5G base stations, big data centers, etc.
The current production capacity is 34-350,000 tons, and it is planned to expand the production capacity of Chongqing Phase II by 150,000 tons (for new energy vehicles). 1) Rapid expansion of production capacity: Currently, the company's total production capacity of aluminum sheet and foil is 34-350,000 tons (200,000 tons in Chongqing Phase I, 140,000 tons in Shanghai). Additionally, the company plans to build a production capacity of 150,000 tons for Chongqing Phase II. 2) Cost reduction: Chongqing has lower energy costs and higher yield than the Shanghai base, and there is room for the company's tonnes of processing costs to decline.
Maintain a buy rating. The company is a leading aluminum company for automotive thermal management. After the new Chongqing base is fully put into operation, the industry pattern is stable. The company's product yield, cost control ability, and profitability are ahead of its peers. The company already has liquid cooling material products related to automobiles, new energy vehicles, energy storage, and data centers, which will fully benefit from the demand volume of related industries. Due to damage to export profits due to the price difference of aluminum exports, we lowered our profit forecast for 23/24. The company's net profit for 23-25 is estimated to be 9.1/12.5/1.5 billion yuan (the original forecast for 23-25 was 10.0/13.0/1.5 billion yuan), corresponding to PE 18/13/11 times, maintaining the purchase rating.
Risk warning: Product processing costs fell; Chongqing base construction fell short of expectations; international trade friction