Conclusions and recommendations:
The company's revenue in 2023 increased by 43%-57%, and net profit increased by 53%-76%, reflecting the continued promotion of domestic replacement of semiconductor equipment. At the same time, the company signed new orders of more than 30 billion yuan in 2023, and there is a high degree of certainty about performance growth.
Looking forward to the future, as a domestic equipment platform company, the company has accumulated a lot in semiconductor equipment fields such as etching, deposition, heat treatment, and cleaning equipment. While carrying the heavy responsibility of localization, it has also further opened up its own market space. We expect the company's net profit for 2023-25 to be 3.91 billion yuan, 5.09 billion yuan, and 6.32 billion yuan; YOY will increase 66%, 30%, and 24%; EPS will be 7.37 yuan, 9.61 yuan, and 11.92 yuan. The current stock price corresponding to 2023-25 PE is 31 times, 24 times, and 19 times, respectively, giving a buying rating.
Domestic substitution promotion, high performance in 2023: The company announced that in 2023, the company is expected to achieve revenue of 21 billion yuan to 231 billion yuan, YOY to grow 43%-57%, achieve net profit of 3.61 billion yuan to 4.15 billion yuan, YOY increase 53%-76%, net profit after deduction of 3.3 billion yuan to 3.8 billion yuan, and YOY increase 57%-80%. The company's performance was in line with expectations. Corresponsibly, 4Q23 achieved revenue of 6.4 billion yuan to 8.5 billion yuan, YOY increased 37%-82%, achieved net profit of 73% to 1.27 billion yuan, YOY increased 8.7%-90%, net profit after deduction of 660 million yuan to 1.16 billion yuan, and YOY increased 4.7%-84%. Thanks to domestic substitution in the semiconductor equipment industry, the company's performance grew rapidly in 2023.
New orders are worth 30 billion yuan, and the performance growth is highly certain: in 2023, the company signed more than 30 billion yuan of new orders, of which the integrated circuit sector accounts for more than 70%. It is 1.4 times the median estimated revenue value for 2023, and there is a high degree of certainty in performance growth.
Profit forecast: In the long run, it is expected that production capacity at the semiconductor manufacturing side in mainland China will continue to expand. As a leader in the domestic equipment sector, the company is in a leading domestic position in many segments, and will continue to benefit from the increase in demand for domestic fabs to expand production. The company's 2023-25 net profit is expected to be 3.91 billion yuan, 5.09 billion yuan, and 6.32 billion yuan; YOY will increase 66%, 30%, and 24%; EPS will be 7.37 yuan, 9.61 yuan, and 11.92 yuan. The current stock price corresponding to 2023-25 PE is 31 times, 24 times, and 19 times, respectively, giving a buying rating.
Risk warning: Increased technological friction has led to a decline in demand from fabs