Event: On January 15, 2024, the company announced the 2023 performance forecast. In 2023, it is expected to achieve total operating income of 17.60-1.87 billion yuan, an increase of 64.26%-74.53%; net profit to mother of 470-530 million yuan, an increase of 158.90%-191.95%; net profit after deducting non-return to mother of 460-520 million yuan, an increase of 175.86%-211.84% year on year.
Q4 Continue dosing on shingles. Based on the median earnings forecast, 2023Q4 had revenue of 572 million yuan (+177.94%), net profit of 169 million yuan (+658%), net profit of non-return to mother of 164 million yuan (+594%), full year 2023 revenue of 1,815 million yuan (+69.40%), net profit to mother of 500 million yuan (+175.43%), net profit of non-return to mother of 490 million yuan (+193.85%). 23Q4 shingles continued to grow, influenza vaccination continued during the influenza season, and the company's profits grew well. Batch issuance: Shingles 23Q4 batches issued 7 batches, 25 batches throughout the year; influenza vaccine 23Q4 batches issued 2 batches, 5 batches throughout the year; chickenpox 23Q4 batches issued 22 batches, 97 batches throughout the year.
The research pipeline layout is rich, and it has entered the mRNA technology platform. 23Q4's all-human anti-tetanus monoclonal antibody and human diploid rabies vaccine have been clinically approved. The company's components are 100 white, nasal spray influenza liquid preparations, all-human anti-rabies monoclonal antibodies, Hib, influenza virus lysis vaccine (BK-01 adjuvant), and recombinant shingles vaccine are also worth paying attention to.
2023Q3 began a step-by-step capital increase and share acquisition of mRNA company Communication Biotech, and eventually held 100% of the shares, further enriching the company's technical platform and product pipeline, and building a moat for long-term development.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions: Referring to the company's performance forecast, we adjusted the company's operating income for 2023-2025 to be RMB 18.43, 28.70, and RMB 3,520 billion (pre-adjusted values were 19.00, 27.94 billion yuan, and RMB 3.445 billion), up 72.04%, 55.70%, and 22.65% year-on-year; net profit to mother was 5.10, 805, and 1.62 billion yuan, respectively (adjusted prior values of 514, 7.84, and 978 million yuan), with year-on-year increases of 181.10%, 57.77%, 31.90% As a leader in the chickenpox vaccine, the company is expected to resume doses of nasal spray influenza, contribute significantly to the marketing of shingles, and maintain a “buy” rating.
Risk warning: Risk of R&D progress falling short of expectations, risk of vaccine product sales falling short of expectations, risk of negative events in the vaccine industry; risk of vaccine failure due to coronavirus mutations; risk of delayed information or untimely updates in public data used in research reports.