On January 15, 2024, the company released its 2023 performance forecast. In 2023, the company expects to achieve net profit of 530 million yuan to 580 million yuan, an increase of 85% to 102% over the previous year; net profit without deduction of 570 to 620 million yuan, an increase of 71% to 86% over the previous year. Looking at a single quarter, the fourth quarter of 2023 is expected to achieve net profit of 1.61 to 211 million yuan, an increase of 85% to 143% over the previous year; net profit without deduction of 1.59 to 209 million yuan is expected, an increase of 77% to 132% over the previous year.
Management analysis
Research on the cure of chronic hepatitis B continues to be deepened, and the core product Pegobin is rapidly being released. The company's core product, Pegobin (polyethylene glycol interferon alpha-2b injection), was approved for marketing in 2016. According to the company announcement, with the continuous deepening of clinical cure research on hepatitis B, Pegbin's effects in improving the clinical cure rate of hepatitis B patients and reducing the risk of liver cancer have been further recognized by experts and patients. Continued product release has strongly driven the company's 2023 business performance to achieve rapid year-on-year growth.
Research on the treatment of various types of people with chronic B disease continues to advance, and it is expected that the number of people treated with antiviral treatment will continue to expand.
Currently, a series of studies and exploration on the clinical cure of various types of people with chronic hepatitis B are continuing to be deepened. Multiple studies have confirmed that the clinical cure rate of people treated with nucleosides, people carrying inactive HBsAg, children with chronic hepatitis B, and pregnant women using treatment based on polyethylene glycol interferon α (Peg-IFNα) after delivery can reach 30% or higher. As the number of people treated with chronic hepatitis B antiviral treatment continues to expand, scientific evidence on clinical treatment of hepatitis B continues to increase, and awareness continues to rise, combined with the market monopoly position, Pegbin sales are expected to achieve continuous breakthroughs in the future.
Clinical projects are progressing steadily, and the product pipeline continues to be rich. The company continues to focus on the field of immunotherapy and metabolism, and is actively promoting a number of clinical research projects. According to previous announcements, the company's topefigastine injection (trade name: Pegin) was approved for marketing in June 2023, and the marketing application for Yipei growth hormone injection was accepted in January 2024. In addition, the company's research pipeline also includes various products such as Y-type polyethylene glycol recombinant human erythropotropin and human interferon α2b spray. If successfully approved for marketing in the future, it is expected that the company's product line will be further enriched.
Profit Forecasts, Valuations, and Ratings
Based on the current trend of rapid revenue growth in the company's main products and the overall profit margin optimization rate exceeding expectations, we raised the company's net profit by 17%, 15%, and 15% respectively. The company is expected to achieve net profit of 5.49 (+91%), 7.72 (+41%), and 10.38 (+34%) billion yuan in 2023-2025, respectively. The corresponding current EPS is 1.35 yuan, 1.90 yuan, and 2.55 yuan, respectively. Corresponding to the current P/E is 38, 27, and 20 times, respectively. Maintain a “buy” rating.
Risk warning
New product approval falls short of expectations; new product sales promotion falls short of expected risk; risk of technical results not being effectively transformed.