Snow and ice tours are popular, and tourism operations performed well during the New Year's Day holiday. The occupancy rate remained high, and the turnover reached a record high. At the beginning of 2024, benefiting from the rapid rise in the popularity of snow and ice tours, the company's Club Med Resort, Atlantis and other businesses all performed well. During the three days of the New Year's Day holiday, ClubMed Club Med's resort turnover in China increased by 154% year-on-year, surpassing about 84% in the same period in 2019, and the average occupancy rate of 85%. Among them, the average occupancy rate of the three ice and snow resorts in Beidahu/Yabuli/Changbaishan reached 95% + for 3 days at the end of the year 23, and the average daily occupancy rate of the four resorts in Xianlin/Taicang/Anji/Yanqing in Nanjing was close to full during the holiday period. Atlantis Sanya's New Year's Day sales increased by about 12% year on year, surpassing about 12% in the same period in '19, setting a record high in sales during the New Year's Day holiday, with an average occupancy rate of 94%. Benefiting from the popularity of snow and ice tourism, Taicang Alpine Resort continues to increase in passenger traffic after winter. As the largest indoor ski resort in East China, Taicang Alps Snow World received an average of 3,000 visitors per day during New Year's Day, and about 1,500 on weekdays since December.
Travel demand has been released rapidly in 23 years, and the performance of the travel operation business can be expected. In the first three quarters of 2023, demand in the travel market continued to recover, and the company achieved revenue of 14.191 billion yuan, with profit turning a year-on-year profit; Club Med Resort and Sanya Atlantis all significantly recovered. Among them, Club Med's total turnover/OCC/ADR recovered to 116.8%/97.0%/131.5% in the same period in 2019, respectively, and Yate OCC increased by 40.6 pcts year on year to 85%. During the 11th holiday of '23, Club Med's total turnover exceeded 25% in the same period in '19, OCC reached 90%, and Sanya Yate's turnover exceeded 21% in the same period in '19, and OCC reached 90%. As of October 7, 23, the number of bookings for ClubMed 23H2 increased 6% year over year, up 23% from 19H2, which is optimistic about the company's annual travel business performance.
With the launch of its new projects and the recovery of the tourism and vacation market, I am optimistic about the continued growth of the company's cultural tourism business. As of 10/7/23, Club Med 24H1 bookings increased about 22% year over year, up about 53% from 22H1. 23Q4 has launched several new projects. On December 20, Kiroro Grand Resort in Hokkaido, Japan officially opened. The project is located in the center of Kiroro, Japan. The project is located in the center of Kiroro, with convenient transportation, less than 2 hours by car from New Chitose Airport and Sapporo Okadama Airport. It can also provide spring skiing in late May to upgrade the mountain snow and ice vacation experience. Additionally, ClubMed Nanjing Xianlin Resort opened in October, and Taicang Alps International Resort officially opened in November. The expansion of the company's supply of high-quality vacation products is expected to drive the continued growth of the cultural tourism business.
Investment advice: The winter snow and ice travel boom is driving the cultural tourism consumption boom to continue to pick up, and I am optimistic that tourism demand will continue to be released during the Spring Festival. Considering that demand in the real estate market continues to be sluggish recently, the company's sales in Taicang Retreat City may be under pressure, and the company's 23/24 profit forecast is lowered. The company's net profit forecast for 23-25 is 2.4/3.8/570 million yuan, corresponding growth rate is 144%/60%/51%. EPS for 23-25 is 0.19/0.31/0.46 yuan, respectively. The current price corresponding PE is 26/16/11 times. I am optimistic about the improvement in the high-end resort market and the future profitability of the company under cost reduction and structural optimization Further strengthen and maintain the company's “gain” rating.
Risk warning: demand recovery falls short of expectations; real estate sales fall short of expectations; performance of new projects falls short of expectations; risk of exchange rate fluctuations.