2020 年以来，唐山港大幅压缩商品销售业务、退出船舶运输业务、剥离集装箱码头业务，聚焦散杂货装卸主业。但是主业再投资需求少，因此唐山港提高分红比例，2020-2022 年分别为64%、99%、70%，股息率分别为8.1%、12.7%、7.3%。考虑到唐山港资产负债率低、现金充足、再投资需求少，我们预计未来唐山港将继续高分红。如果分红比例维持70%左右，那么2023 年股息率有望达到6%左右。Net profit to mother is expected to increase by 10% in 2024
We expect Tangshan Port's net profit to be 2.06 billion yuan in 2023, an increase of 22% over the previous year; of these, throughput will increase by 13% and rates will increase by 10%. We expect net profit to be 2.26 billion yuan in 2024, an increase of 10% over the previous year; we assume that the loss of the low base will cause the throughput growth rate to slow to about 5%, and the rate will increase slightly by about 2%. With the slowdown in industrialization and urbanization, and the development of new energy sources, etc., the future throughput growth rate will decline further, and the consolidation of Hebei ports is expected to drive rates to continue to rise slightly, so net profit is expected to continue to increase slightly.
A high percentage of dividends, and the dividend rate is expected to be around 6%
Since 2020, Tangshan Port has drastically reduced product sales business, withdrawn from shipping business, divested container terminal business, and focused on the main bulk goods handling business. However, there is little demand for reinvestment in the main business, so Tangshan Port increased the dividend ratio. The dividend ratio was 64%, 99%, and 70% in 2020-2022, respectively, and the dividend rates were 8.1%, 12.7%, and 7.3%, respectively. Considering Tangshan Port's low balance ratio, sufficient cash, and low reinvestment requirements, we expect Tangshan Port to continue to have high dividends in the future. If the dividend ratio remains around 70%, the dividend rate is expected to reach around 6% in 2023.
There is plenty of room for port integration
In July 2022, Hebei Port Group promised to steadily promote related business integration through various measures or integration methods such as asset restructuring, asset replacement, equity replacement, business adjustment, and entrustment management within 5 years to resolve competition issues in the industry. On the one hand, there is plenty of room for integration of unlisted terminals: in 2022, Hebei port cargo throughput was 1,277 million tons, Hebei Port Group 733 million tons, and listed companies Tangshan Port Co., Ltd. and Qingang shares were 207 million tons and 384 million tons. On the other hand, there is plenty of room for consolidation of terminals by cargo type: Hebei Port Group has a throughput of 396 million tons of metallurgical goods such as metal ore and groceries, and 294 million tons of energy goods such as coal and oil, which are scattered among companies such as Tangshan Port Co., Ltd., Caofeidian Port Group, and Qingang Co., Ltd. If the integrated operation is divided into types of goods and Tangshan Port focuses on certain types of goods, then throughput is expected to increase significantly.
Maintain profit forecasts and “buy” ratings
Tangshan Port's throughput will increase as scheduled, and the integration of Hebei ports is expected to advance as promised, predicting net profit of 20.6, 22.6, and 2.39 billion yuan from 2023-2025; Tangshan Port is expected to continue to have high dividends, with an expected dividend rate of around 6% in 2023, maintaining a “buy” rating.
Risk warning: Environmental production restrictions are becoming stricter, investment in real estate and infrastructure is declining, port fee reduction policies have been introduced, dividend ratios have declined, and port asset consolidation is lower than expected.
