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零跑汽车(9863.HK):新车型和新渠道注入新生命

Zero Sports Auto (9863.HK): New models and channels inject new life

建銀國際 ·  Jan 11

The C10 came at just the right time. Leading Auto's C10 SUV was tested last night. The price range was RMB 15.18-185,800. By the time of actual sale, we think the price could be even lower by 3,000 to 5,000 yuan. The C10 product is well-positioned in both China and Europe due to its spacious space, suitable for home use, and overall affordability. We believe it will continue to gain traction in the market by providing the best value for money specifications in this field. We expect C10 production to catch up with C11 in the second half of 2024. Growing economies of scale, declining raw material prices, and a growing portfolio of high-average price models are translating into significant improvements in leading auto's gross margin.

Expanding the product portfolio for electric vehicles and pure electric vehicles. We have seen positive market feedback on the C01 and C11 range-extended-range electric vehicle versions after they were launched in the first quarter of 2023. Monthly data continues to improve.

Widespread appreciation for the leading design concept and practicality will expand its success through the 2024F and 2025F new model combinations. Following increased production and sales, we expect the new powertrain options to double demand for these two models and drive increased deliveries, which increased 50% year over year in 2024.

Other potential drivers of growth are the company's planned export channels in Europe and Southeast Asia in the second half of the year, and close cooperation with St. Dilantis, which we believe will clear the way for leading development in Europe while protecting it from political risks. As two factories in Jinhua prepare to open and construction of a new plant in Hangzhou begins, Leading is confident to deliver its target portfolio of 7 models by 2025, launching 1-3 models every year, covering sedans, SUVs, and MPVs of various sizes.

Maintaining an superior market rating. Our valuation of leading cars combines industry comparison and price-sales ratio (P/S) analysis. This is the most commonly used valuation method for NEV startups. This valuation method is particularly suitable for the company, given the leading focus on smart electric vehicles/EVs and their growth momentum. We use constant price-to-sales valuations and 2x price-earnings ratios to reflect the momentum of the industry. This multiple is in line with our target multiple for Xiaopeng Motors (XPEV US). The 2024F/2025F sales forecast was raised by 21%/10% to reflect the new models and positive market feedback on ERV models; however, the target price was lowered from HK$55.40 to HK$54.5 to reflect the equity dilution after cooperation with the St. Dilantis Group.

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