Glonghui, January 12 | Jefferies published a report saying that under the impetus of HIBOR, BOC Hong Kong's net interest income for the fourth quarter of last year is expected to increase slightly from quarter to quarter, but the overall net interest spread may continue to be pressured by capital flow, and it is expected that its handling fee revenue for the fourth quarter of last year may be suppressed by seasonality and weak market sentiment. The bank is also concerned that BOC's provisions for the fourth quarter of last year from China Commercial Real Estate (CRE) may increase significantly compared to the previous quarter. These negative developments explain the reason for the recent weakness in its stock price. Jefferies expects BOCHK to pay HK$1.66 per share in 2023 (previously forecast was HK$1.8). The payout ratio is estimated to remain at 53%, and the dividend return is expected to be around 8.3%. The bank said that based on the Bank of China's potential to make more provisions, it lowered its earnings forecast per share from 2023 to 2025 by 3% to 6%. The bank expects the stock price to be pressured after the Bank of China announces last year's results. The bank maintained its “buy” investment rating for BOC, and the target price was reduced from HK$27 to HK$24.