The leading microgrid market is huge, and the company's competitive advantage is obvious. According to the company's response to an inquiry letter to the exchange, there are currently more than 2 million industrial and commercial users with a power supply voltage rating of 10 kV and above in China. Enterprise microgrid demand is divided into two aspects: immediate demand and selection: (1) immediate demand refers to hardware meters. According to estimates, the market space for industrial and commercial user hardware instruments is about 2.5 billion yuan in 2021, and will reach more than 3 billion yuan by 2025.
(2) Optional refers to user-side microgrid systems. According to estimates, the market space for industrial and commercial user-side microgrid systems is about 23 billion yuan in 2021, and is expected to reach more than 44 billion yuan by 2025. In the future, if all users use a microgrid energy efficiency management system, the company's market space will reach 800 billion yuan based on the value of a single 400,000 yuan set. The company has obvious competitive advantages and great potential for development in the future. The company's long-term high R&D investment supports the continuous iterative upgrading of the company's products. The company has now completed two product upgrade stages. One is the development of hardware to the EMS 1.0 stage, which has modular, automated and digital characteristics; the second is the development of EMS 1.0 to EMS 2.0, which has achieved platformization, broken down information silos, and achieved interconnection; in the future, the company will continue to develop from EMS 2.0 to the EMS 3.0 (Ancrei Microgrid Smart Energy Platform) stage. The gross margin is expected to increase further.
Overseas markets are expanding, and overseas business is expected to grow rapidly this year. In recent years, energy supply prices and supply volumes have been unstable due to factors such as fluctuations in the global economic environment and geopolitical instability. As one of the emerging electricity management models in recent years, microgrids have the advantages of low cost and high reliability, and their technology is gradually being popularized at home and abroad. At present, microgrids have become an important auxiliary means of solving many problems in power systems in some developed countries. Each country has proposed its own microgrid concepts and development goals based on actual problems in their own power systems. From a global perspective, microgrid technology promotion has passed its infancy, and the market size will grow steadily, which will provide a broad market space for microgrid companies.
Investment advice: We expect the company's net profit from 23-25 to be 235/319/443 million yuan, +37.6%/36.1%/38.7% year-on-year, corresponding EPS of 1.09/1.49/2.06 yuan, respectively, to maintain the “gain” rating.
Risk warning: Product promotion is not as fast as expected risk, and competitors increase risk