Incidents:
On January 11, 2024, the company announced that it has obtained a patent authorization for the “Alzheimer-related neurofilament protein chemiluminescence immunoassay kit and its preparation method”.
Comment:
1. The base of Alzheimer's disease (AD) patients in China is huge, and the need for diagnosis and treatment is yet to be released. The number of existing AD and other dementia patients in China in 2019 was 13.14 million, and the incidence rate was 0.056%-0.207%. The prevalence rate and death rate were higher than the global average. As the aging population intensifies, the number of AD patients is expected to continue to grow, and will exceed 30 million in 2050. However, at present, the diagnosis rate (especially early diagnosis) and treatment rate of AD in China are low. In the future, as residents' awareness and emphasis on AD continues to increase, it will spawn huge market demand for diagnosis and treatment.
2. Mainstream testing methods have limitations, and AD biomarker diagnostic technology can help advance early screening. Compared with mainstream cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) and PET/CT testing methods, IVD tests based on biomarkers for AD diagnosis in blood and urine are non-invasive, fast, and more cost-effective, and their development is expected to increase the rate of early diagnosis of AD. Currently, mainstream AD biomarkers are beta amyloid protein and TAU protein, which are used in blood samples. They are recommended as clinical diagnosis by the “Draft Alzheimer's Disease Diagnostic Guidelines” (NIAAA), and many IVD companies are scrambling to develop related testing products.
However, AD-related neurofilin (AD7c-NTP) is abundant in patients with neuronal fiber entanglement lesions, and its concentration increases as the course of AD progresses. In particular, compared to beta amyloid protein and TAU protein, it is a better choice for early AD diagnosis biomarkers.
3. The company's AD chemiluminescence patent authorization is expected to help open up the blue ocean market before it is approved for listing. The company has strong self-research capabilities and a rich IVD product matrix, including 7 major series of urine, biochemistry, chemiluminescence, etc., as well as many high-end innovative products. The patented AD-related neurofilin chemiluminescence immunoassay kit is based on urine samples. It can quantitatively detect AD-related neurofilin with a fully automated chemiluminescence immunoassay analyzer, and has the advantages of efficient chemiluminescence, accurate quantitative detection, and non-invasive urine samples. The patent is expected to establish technical barriers for the company in the field of AD testing, escort AD chemiluminescence platform products to the market first, enter the AD testing blue ocean market, and continue to consolidate the company's overall competitiveness.
Profit forecast: We expect the company's revenue for 2023-2025 to be 16.53, 21.96, and 2,859 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 35.52%, 32.85%, and 30.15%, respectively, and net profit to mother of 3.21, 4.22, and 548 million yuan respectively. The year-on-year growth rates are 22.60%, 31.42%, and 29.87%, respectively, corresponding to the current stock price PE, which is 24, 18, and 14 times, respectively, maintaining the “recommended” rating.
Risk warning: Market promotion falls short of expectations, increased risk of industry competition, risk of industry policy changes, risk of collection and price reduction, new product development falling short of expectations, industry rectification risk, etc.