As an intelligent control platform enterprise of the Fifth Aerospace Academy, the company's main business is railway vehicle operation safety inspection and maintenance systems, intelligent test and simulation systems, microsystems and control components, nuclear industry and special environment automation equipment. The explosion of the satellite internet industry may inject long-term growth momentum into the company's performance.
The company's revenue continues to grow, and the share of special business continues to rise. Since the company acquired two subsidiaries of Xuanyu Space and Xuanyu Smart in 2019 until 2022, the business scale expanded, and revenue continued to grow, rising from 928 million to 1,348 million, with a CAGR of 13.25%. 2023Q3, the company's revenue was 344 million, up 11.24% year over year. Since the company merged the two Xuanyu subsidiaries, the share of revenue related to traditional railway vehicle inspection continued to decline, accounting for only 15.23% in 2022. The share of businesses related to the nuclear industry grew rapidly, rising from 16.56% to 39.17% in 2019-2022, mainly due to the company expanding its product market and improving delivery capacity. The share of intelligent simulation testing and microsystems businesses remained the highest, with a slight decline of 44.79% in 2022.
Taking advantage of the explosion of the satellite internet industry, simulation and microsystems may explode. With years of deep cultivation in the field of measurement and control simulation technology, the subsidiary Xuanyu Space focuses on the field of measurement and control simulation of complex spacecraft systems in China, and has the characteristics of platformization, generalization, miniaturization, and modularity. The company's products have been successfully used in aerospace control system ground simulation testing, embedded computer ground testing and test data management. Considering the demand for 20,000 satellites brought by “GW Starlink” and “G60 Starlink”, the company may directly benefit from the explosion of the industry.
Production capacity reserves are abundant, waiting for the industry to explode. The company is gradually putting into operation and construction of several projects. The Shunyi Aerospace Industrial Park Satellite Application Intelligent Equipment Industrial Base promised to use the raised capital of 236 million yuan, which is expected to be put into use by the end of this year. In addition, intelligent microsystem module R&D and capacity building projects and special robot R&D and capacity building projects have also started construction. With the implementation and commissioning of various projects, it is expected to guarantee the growth of the company's products.
The “dual carbon” policy drives the development of the nuclear industry and intelligent equipment business for special environments. With the continuous development of China's nuclear industry, various work scenarios have become more and more complex, and the demand for robots working in special environments continues to increase. The company entered the field of special operation equipment for the nuclear industry earlier. Currently, it has reached stable cooperative relationships with CNNC units and customers such as the Chinese Academy of Sciences, etc., and there are few domestic competitors.
Profit forecast: It is predicted that the company's net profit for 2023-2025 will be 110 million, 140 million yuan, and 166 million yuan, respectively, corresponding to a valuation of 71/58/47 times. It is covered for the first time, and a “gain” rating is given.
Risk warning: downstream demand fluctuates; the company's product development progress falls short of expectations; risk of changes in the competitive landscape; satellite Internet development falls short of expectations; high price-earnings ratio may bring the risk of stock price fluctuations.