A new version of the energy efficiency rating standard for household refrigerators is being revised. China's current energy efficiency rating standard for household refrigerators is GB 12021.2-2015, which has been implemented for more than 7 years; the standard was drafted in October 2013, released in September 2015, and implemented in October 2016, completely replacing the previous 2008 version of the national standard. According to Xinhua News Agency, the implementation of the 2015 national standard is expected to eliminate more than 20% of energy-intensive products on the market at the time and increase the energy efficiency level of products in the market by about 10%. At present, a new version of the national standard for energy efficiency ratings for household refrigerators has begun to be drafted, with plan number 20231710-Q-469.
The company's vacuum insulation board products can effectively improve the energy efficiency level of refrigerators. Vacuum insulation board (VIP board) is the company's main product. The revenue contribution has remained at 95% + in recent years. It is a new type of insulation material with excellent performance. The thermal conductivity is lower than 3.5 mW/ (m·k), which is significantly superior to traditional polyurethane insulation materials, and has good thermal insulation and energy saving effects. Vacuum insulation panels can save 10% to 30% of energy when used on refrigerators, and can increase the effective volume of refrigerators by 20% to 30%.
The company's leading position in the vacuum insulation board market is remarkable. From 2016 to 2022, vacuum insulation board revenue increased from 109 million yuan to 621 million yuan in 2022, with a compound annual growth rate of 34%. 2023Q3 sales volume exceeded 2.5 million square meters. The company has rich customer resources. In 2021, 8 of the top 10 refrigerator manufacturers in the world were all company customers. Of these, 6 refrigerator manufacturers (55.5% of the total market share) used the company as their main supplier in the field of vacuum insulation panels. In September 2023, the company issued convertible bonds to raise 442 million yuan to invest in the construction of Saite Vacuum Industrial Manufacturing Base (Phase I). The project achieved a vacuum insulation board production capacity of 5 million square meters per year after delivery, which can effectively mitigate the company's tight production capacity problems and further improve production and operation efficiency.
There is huge room for improving the permeability of vacuum insulation panels. According to the company's forecast, the market penetration rate of vacuum insulation panels in the domestic refrigerator and freezer sector is only 3%, and the average market penetration rate in the global refrigerator and freezer sector is only about 10%, so there is huge room for improvement. We expect that the implementation of the new version of the energy efficiency standard will encourage downstream enterprises to adopt new energy-saving technologies and materials, promote the upgrading of refrigerator product structures, and the vacuum insulation board market penetration rate is expected to accelerate.
Maintain the company's “gain” rating. The company's net profit from 2023 to 2025 is expected to reach 114, 1.68, and 243 million yuan respectively, up 79%, 47%, and 44% year-on-year, corresponding to 31, 21, and 15 times the valuation.
Risk warning: Project commissioning falls short of expectations, and valuation and profit forecasts fall short of expectations