Introduction to this report:
As a leader in the container industry, the company is involved in various fields such as energy equipment and logistics equipment. We judge that the container, energy equipment, logistics and transportation industries are expected to recover, and we are optimistic about the company's performance growth.
Key points of investment:
Investment advice: The company is a leader in the container industry. It is involved in various fields such as energy equipment and logistics equipment. Many downstream industries are growing in resonance, optimistic about the company's future performance growth, and driving improved profitability. EPS is expected to be 0.13, 0.48, and 0.82 yuan in 2023-2025. Taking into account PE and PB valuations, the company will be given a target price of 10.83 yuan for the first time, with initial coverage and an increase in holdings rating.
The market believes that containers will still be at the bottom, and we believe that the container industry is at the bottom of the renewal cycle. At the same time, the container ratio is low and global trade is recovering, and the container industry is expected to reach an inflection point. 1) The average container sales volume from 2010 to 2014 was 3 million TEU. According to the 12-15 year service life, it is expected to usher in a renewal cycle in 2024-2029; 2) The industry sales volume in 2023 is only 1.7 million TEU, the lowest since 2011, with a 10-year average of about 3 to 3.5 million TEU. Sales are expected to recover to 2.5 to 3 million TEU in 2024, and renewal demand is expected to account for about 70%; 3) Currently, the ship container ratio is 1.75, the lowest since 2019, followed by assembly The release of the container ship is expected to release container sales. As a leader in the container industry, the company has a market share of about 40% and is expected to benefit from the recovery of the industry.
The boom in the three non-box businesses is improving, and much of the downstream resonance is recovering. 1) Road vehicles: In October 2023, China's heavy truck sales volume was +69%, North American semi-trailer orders remained high, domestic logistics and freight demand recovered. As a leading semi-trailer, the industry was booming; 2) Offshore: Total investment in major marine engineering projects in 2022 was +52.16%, the company's offshore orders remained high, 2023Q3 orders reached 5.3 billion; 3) Energy: Affected by overseas wars, international energy demand increased, natural gas and crude oil transportation demand rose, and the industry development prospects were broad.
The entire industrial chain layout creates industry barriers, and technology accumulation deeply invigorates business innovation. Production platforms throughout the industry chain shape production capacity, cost, and technical barriers. As a leader in the container industry, the company has deep cooperation with leading international customers to steadily support future performance growth with on-hand orders.
Risk warning: Container demand falls short of expectations, economic cycle fluctuations, overseas trade protection risks.