Key points of the announcement: SAIC Motor Group produced 608,272 vehicles in December 2023 (December below refers to December 2023), with a year-on-month ratio of +22.59%/+13.30%, and sales volume of 636,966 vehicles, +18.75%/+23.66%, respectively. Among them: SAIC's passenger car production and sales volume in December was 122,797/136,886 units, respectively, +40.77%/+57.54% year on year, and +11.36%/+30.79% month on month; SAIC Volkswagen's production and sales volume in December was 123,233/142,649 units, respectively, +22.27%/+17.41% year on month, respectively; SAIC-GM's production and sales volume in December was 119, 561/104,758 units, year on year + 21.42%/+11.21%, +42.80%/+20.41% month-on-month; SAIC-GM-Wuling's production and sales volume in December was 196,193/201,666 vehicles, respectively, +14.60%/+4.16%, and +18.19%/+26.04% month-on-month respectively. SAIC Motor's annual production volume was 5.03 million vehicles, -5.60% year over year, and annual wholesale volume was 5.02 million units, -5.31% year over year.
Wholesale in December was +23.66% month-on-month, and Zhiji continued to grow. 1) By brand, independent brands performed better than joint venture brands. SAIC's passenger car wholesale performance was the best month-on-month. Zhiji LS6 achieved sales of 9878 units in December, driving sales of Zhiji Motors to break the 10,000 mark, reaching 10,412 units, +19.64% month over month; SAIC-GM's wholesale sales exceeded 20,000 units for the first time in December; SAIC-GM's wholesale sales rose year-on-year, with new energy sales +312%; SAIC-GM's wholesale sales continued to recover month-on-month. Wuling Bingo's sales volume exceeded 30,000 units for two consecutive months. 2) By energy type, sales of new energy vehicles at the group level reached a record high of 219,000 units. At the group level, NEV production batches in December were 217/219,400 units, +57.33%/+53.16% year over year, and +44.08%/+45.59% month over month, respectively. The penetration rate of new energy wholesale in December was 34.44%, +7.7/+5.2 pct compared with the same period last month. From January to December, SAIC sold a total of 1.123 million new energy vehicles, +4.6% year over year; 3) Looking at domestic and foreign markets, SAIC Motor exported 141,300 vehicles in December, +5.34%/+19.95%, respectively. From January to December, SAIC Motor exported 1.208 million vehicles, +18.8% year-on-year; of these, independent brands accounted for nearly 92% of sales, and NEV sales accounted for nearly 24%.
In December, SAIC Motor Group as a whole went to the warehouse. In December, SAIC Motor Group companies had an inventory of 28,694 vehicles (compared to November), while SAIC-Volkswagen, SAIC-GM, SAIC-GM-Wuling's inventory for the month was -19,416, +14,803, -14,089, and -5473 units, respectively (compared to November).
Profit prediction and investment rating: The company's core technology, new energy three-power system+intelligent software and hardware full-stack layout, smart self promotes high-end independent brands, while the company's export performance continues to be impressive. We maintain the company's net profit forecast for 2023-2025 at 134.2/166.2/22.71 billion yuan, corresponding EPS of 1.15/1.42/1.94 yuan, and corresponding PE of 11/9/7 times, maintaining the company's “buy” rating.
Risk warning: The recovery in passenger car demand fell short of expectations; the increase in the penetration rate of new energy fell short of expectations; and the industry price war exceeded expectations.