Incidents:
Beibu Gulf Port's container throughput exceeded 8 million TEUs: In 2023, Beibu Gulf Port's container throughput exceeded 8 million TEUs for the first time, an increase of 13.9% over the previous year. As of 2023, Beibu Gulf Port has been growing steadily at a double-digit rate for seven consecutive years. The CAGR reached 22.1% in 2017-2023, and its growth rate is among the highest among major coastal ports in China.
Investment highlights:
Port clusters have been consolidated and upgraded, and cargo throughput has grown at a high rate year after year
Guangxi Beibu Gulf Port has a port cluster composed of three natural harbors: Fangcheng Port, Beihai Port, and Qinzhou Port. It has good shielding conditions and water depth conditions, and has the conditions to meet the conditions for 300,000 ton bulk carriers and 200,000 ton container ships to enter the port. The three ports have similar regions and supply sources. Due to lack of integration in the early stages, a “small but complete” situation has formed. Thanks to Guangxi's full launch of the Beibu Gulf coastal port development integrated reform pilot project, the integration of the three ports has been upgraded, and the cluster effect of 1+1+1>3 has gradually become prominent. Thanks to the combined effects of improving port construction efforts, unified dispatch of the three ports, and sharing information with various joint inspection departments, the efficiency of bulk cargo and container handling at Beibu Gulf Port has increased by more than 30%. As of 2023, Beibu Gulf Port's container throughput grew steadily at a double-digit rate for seven consecutive years, with a CAGR of 22.1% in 2017-2023. In 2023, Beibu Gulf Port's container throughput exceeded 8 million TEUs for the first time, an increase of 13.9% over the previous year.
An important port for foreign trade in the southwest region, with broad prospects for development, Beibu Gulf Port is connected to the western part of China and ASEAN. It is the most convenient access route to ASEAN countries in western China and the southwest. It is also the largest port west of the Qiongzhou Strait and the closest port in mainland China to the Malacca Strait. It has a unique location advantage. As the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (RCEP) enters a new stage of full entry into force and implementation, economic and trade exchanges and cooperation between China and ASEAN are getting closer. According to the official website of the Beibu Gulf Economic Zone Planning and Construction Management Office (2023/5), demand for large quantities of goods is driving the continuous encryption of Beibu Gulf Port's route network, and Beibu Gulf Port may continue to maintain a strong development momentum in the future.
Profit forecast and investment rating Beibu Gulf Port is a port with good growth in the southwest region. We expect that its revenue for 2023-2025 will be 65.97 billion yuan, 71.66 billion yuan and 7.785 billion yuan, respectively, and net profit to mother will be 11.50, 12.70, and 1,418 billion yuan, respectively. The corresponding PE is 11.71, 10.61, and 9.50 times, respectively, maintaining the “increase” rating.
Risks indicate unexpected events such as economic growth falling short of expectations, import and export demand falling short of expectations, global macroeconomic deterioration, falling short of expectations in cargo volume growth, and natural disasters.