Event Overview: The company released a production and sales report for December 2023: wholesale sales volume of 637,000 vehicles in a single month, +18.8% year over year and +23.7% month over month. Total annual wholesale volume of 5.021 million units, -5.3% year over year; SAIC Volkswagen wholesale of 143,000 units in December, +17.4% year over year, cumulative total wholesale of 1.125 million units, -8.0% year on year; SAIC-GM wholesale 105,000 vehicles in December, +11.2% year over year, +20.4% month on month; total annual wholesale of 1.01 million vehicles, -14.5% year on year; SAIC passenger cars in December, cumulative wholesale volume of 137,000 vehicles year on year, +57.5% year on month, +30.8% month on year, cumulative annual wholesale of 986,000 units Vehicles, +17.5% year over year; SAIC-GM-Wuling sold 202,000 vehicles in December, +4.2% year over year, +26.0% month on month, with a cumulative total of 1.403 million units sold throughout the year, -12.3% year on year.
The upward transformation of demand for new energy sources is accelerating. The company sold a total of 5.021 million units in 2023, -5.3% year over year. Affected by the decline in joint venture sales, the overall sales performance at the group level was weaker than that of the industry; however, on the structural side, the annual sales volume of its own brands reached 2.75,000 units, accounting for more than 55%, an increase of 2.5 pct over 2022; the annual sales volume of new energy was 1.123 million units, and the transformation accelerated markedly.
The Zhiji LS6 showed outstanding autonomy, and the joint venture was fully electrified. On October 12, the Zhiji LS6 was launched, priced at 214,900 to 276,900 yuan. All new cars are equipped with ORinX high-computing power chips, ultra-long-range high-precision lidar, and the smart IM AD smart driving system. In 11/12, the smart car achieved sales volume of 8,158/10,412 units, showing strong demand. Subsequent steady state sales are expected to be close to 10,000 units; on the Wuling side, Binguo sold more than 30,000 units for 2 consecutive months. Wuling Starlight with the “Wuling Lingxi Hybrid System” was launched on December 6. 2800mm, with Advanced space performance, with pricing of 88,800 yuan and 105,800 yuan. Sales volume exceeded 10,000 units in December, the first month of launch. In addition, SAIC Passenger Cars, SAIC Volkswagen, and SAIC GM Renewable Energy achieved annual sales of 35.8/13/100,000 units, respectively, and autonomous and joint ventures fully accelerated the electrification transformation.
It continues to be popular overseas. Global ocean and sky. In 2022, the company exported a total of 1.017 million vehicles, +45.9% year-on-year. Growth continued in 2023, with annual overseas sales reaching 1.208 million units, +18.8% over the same period. The growth trend is good. It continues to be a strong leader among domestic car companies. Among them, independent brands account for 92%, new energy accounts for 24%, and MG4 EV sales exceed 100,000 units in Europe. On the afternoon of July 4, SAIC Motor Group announced that the company is currently planning to establish a vehicle factory in Europe. Subsequently, SAIC Motor will launch 14 new smart electric “global vehicles” in overseas markets, further expanding the overseas product matrix, which is expected to further improve overseas sales.
Investment advice: The company has solid underlying technology, excellent platforming capabilities, and is expected to usher in a new growth cycle of autonomous and joint venture two-wheel drive. The company's revenue for 2023-2025 is expected to be 7,750/7,953/819 billion yuan, and net profit to the mother is 152.33/170.19/18.328 billion yuan, corresponding to EPS of 1.30/1.46/1.57 yuan, corresponding to the closing of 13.5 yuan/share on January 3, 2024 The price and PE were 10/9/9 times, respectively. They were covered for the first time, and a “recommended” rating was given.
Risk warning: downside risk in the car market; downside risk of joint venture brands; launch of new electric smart models falling short of expectations; overseas expansion falling short of expectations.