Haitong Securities expects the 2023-25E net profit of China Biopharmaceutical (01177) to be 27.4/29.6/3.33 billion yuan (not considering the recovery of Tianqing's minority shareholders' rights).
The Zhitong Finance App learned that Haitong Securities released a research report stating that maintaining China Biopharmaceutical (01177)'s “superior to the market” rating, the estimated revenue for 2023-25E is 301.9/334.5/38.53 billion yuan, respectively, and net profit to the mother (without taking into account the recovery of Tianqing's minority shareholders' rights) is 27.4/29.6/3.33 billion yuan respectively, with a target price of HK$5.98 billion.
According to the report, the company's non-exclusive generic drugs with an annual revenue of 500 million or more have all been included in the scope of collection. It is estimated that the ninth batch of collected products will account for about 3% of the revenue, and the collection risk has basically been cleared. The company's innovation transformation accelerated: 1) Innovative drug revenue continued to grow rapidly, reaching 3.86 billion (+10.9%) in 2023H1, accounting for 25.3% (+2.4pct) of total revenue; 2) Investment in innovative R&D continued to increase, with total investment in 2023H1 R&D accounting for 17.1% of revenue (+6.8pct compared to 2018), of which innovative drug investment accounted for 84% (+35pct compared to 2018); 3) Accelerated innovation transformation and implementation, clinical development accelerated self-research project implementation (IL-4R as an example). Innovation promotes the transformation and implementation of BD projects.
The bank mentioned that the company is actively introducing competitive innovation pipelines, including the world-leading pan-PPAR inhibitor (Inventiva) in the NASH field, the easy-to-use and broad-spectrum antimicrobial peptide PL-5 (Pray Pharmaceuticals), and third-generation G-CSF (100 million biotech), which is easy to administer and has low allergenicity. In terms of global layout, Invox integrates technology platforms such as SoftHale, PhiON, and F-STAR to accelerate the global development of the Group's innovative products. At the beginning of 2023, the company obtained licenses from the UK's NSIA and US CFIUS and successfully completed the acquisition of F-Star. The bank believes this will help enhance the company's reputation for global cooperation and potentially bring opportunities for global cooperation.