The Zhitong Finance App learned that Zhongtai Securities released a research report saying that humanoid robots will pay more attention to the sensing layer and interaction layer. The importance of sensors is highlighted. Among intelligent robots, sensors are used a lot and account for a high proportion of the cost, and various sensors on Tesla Optimus robots account for nearly 30% of the cost. As humanoid robots are about to enter a stage of rapid development, sensors will fully benefit from this process; among them, the three types of force control, tactile, and inertial sensors are expensive, and there is still a big gap in the technical level of high-end products at home and abroad. MEMS sensors are one of the best solutions for robot sensors due to their many advantages such as high integration, small size, and low large-scale production costs.

Recommended attention: Force sensor targets Coli Sensing (603662.SH), China Avionics Measurement (300114.SZ); flexible tactile sensor targets Hanwei Technology (300007.SZ); inertial sensor targets Silicon Electronics (688582.SH) and Huayi Technology (688071.SH).

The views of Zhongtai Securities are as follows:

Sensors are the key to the sensing layer of humanoid robots, and force control, tactile, and inertial sensors based on MEMS processes are expected to fully benefit.

① Humanoid robots will pay more attention to the sensing layer and interaction layer, and the importance of sensors will be highlighted. Among intelligent robots, sensors are used a lot, and the cost ratio is high. Various types of sensors on Tesla Optimus robots account for nearly 30% of the cost.

② Humanoid robots are about to enter a stage of rapid development, and sensors will fully benefit from this process; among them, the three types of force control, tactile, and inertial sensors are expensive, and there is still a big gap in the technical level of high-end products at home and abroad. MEMS sensors are one of the best solutions for robot sensors due to their many advantages such as high integration, small size, and low large-scale production costs.

The six-dimensional force sensor is the preferred solution for precise force control of robots. The technical barriers are high, and our country is rapidly catching up with the world's advanced level.

① Force/torque sensors are an important way for robots to sense forces. Humanoid robots achieve “tactile” perception through active dynamic control. Force control based on force sensors is the preferred choice for precise robot force control. The six-dimensional force sensor, on the other hand, is the most dimensional force sensor, and can give the most comprehensive and accurate force information.

② MEMS is expected to accelerate the replacement of metal foil force sensors. Looking at the technical route, currently Six-Dimensional Force is mainly a metal foil type, but this type of product has defects such as high labor costs and low efficiency. In contrast, silicon-based MEMS has low cost, low power consumption, high reliability, and is suitable for mass production, and is expected to become mainstream in the future.

③ Overseas first-mover advantage is obvious, and domestic companies are catching up quickly. Currently, overseas companies such as ATI dominate the global market, and China's six-dimensional force sensor industry started late; due to technical barriers such as interdimensional coupling and calibration testing, it is still in the early stages of the industry. The market size in 2022 is only about 240 million yuan. National brands such as Kunwei Technology, Blue Dot Touch, and Nanning Yuli are rapidly localizing and high-end six-dimensional force sensors; among them, Kunwei Technology has successfully independently developed six-dimensional force sensors with mass production accuracy higher than 0.5%, and currently accounts for more than 50% of the domestic market.

Flexible tactile sensors are expected to further enhance robotic sensing capabilities. Currently, they are in the early stages of industrialization, and there is plenty of room for growth.

① Flexible tactile sensors are expected to upgrade robot perception capabilities. Compared with traditional rigid sensors, flexible tactile sensors have characteristics such as bendability and ductility, and can be widely used in healthcare, consumer electronics, industry, etc. The “electronic skin” required for humanoid robots is an array tactile sensor prepared using flexible materials, which is expected to enable the robot to sense multiple physical quantities (temperature, force, roughness, etc.) and help the robot achieve precise operation. According to its sensing principle, it can mainly be divided into piezoelectric, piezoresistive, and capacitive tactile sensors.

② The global flexible sensor market space is expected to exceed 50 billion yuan in 2028, and the domestic growth rate is expected to be much higher than overseas. According to Hanwei Technology's WeChat account, the global flexible sensor market has a compound annual growth rate of 6.8% from 2021 to 2028, and is expected to reach US$8.47 billion in 2028; in the domestic market, the market size of China's flexible sensor industry in 2022 was 2.112 billion yuan, with a CAGR of over 23% in 2017-2022, of which consumer electronics and medical care are the main sources of demand.

③ Overseas leaders have an advantage, and domestic companies are catching up at an accelerated pace. With the upgrading of processing processes such as MEMS technology, electronic printing technology, and 3D printing technology, “electronic skin” is expected to develop in the direction of high density, high sensitivity, quick response, versatility, and high integration. In terms of the competitive landscape, overseas companies such as Novasentis, Tekscan, and JDI are still at the top of the market share. According to QY Research data, the world's top eight flexible tactile sensor companies occupied 57.1% of the market share in 2022, with a high market concentration; among domestic companies, many companies such as Nengshi (a subsidiary of Hanwei Technology), Pacini Sensing, and Force Sensing Technology all have flexible sensor production layouts, but they are all in the early stages; demand for humanoid robots is expected to accelerate the advancement of domestic brand technology.

Inertial sensors help humanoid robots achieve attitude control, navigation and positioning. Domestic replacement space for high-performance sensors is huge

① MEMS inertial sensors have the advantages of small size, low power consumption, and strong integration capabilities, and are highly applicable in the field of humanoid robots. Using the IMU (Inertial Measurement Unit), the angular velocity and acceleration of the robot can be measured in real time, thereby helping the robot maintain a stable posture and balance. Combined with GPS or satellite positioning, accurate navigation and positioning can be achieved. According to accuracy from high to low, inertial sensors are divided into strategic level, navigation level, tactical level, and consumer grade. It is expected that the IMU used in humanoid robots is close to the L3 level intelligent driving accuracy requirements, and is usually suitable for tactical-grade and consumer-grade products with accuracy close to tactical level.

② The global MEMS inertial sensor market is about US$3.5 billion in 2021 and is expected to maintain an annualized growth rate of 8-10%. Among them, high-performance MEMS inertial sensors (MEMS inertial sensors other than consumer grade) account for about 20% of the total. We expect high-performance inertial sensors to benefit from rapid downstream development such as intelligent driving, robotics, and the Internet of Things, and the growth rate should be higher than the overall industry level.

③ MEMS inertial sensor competitive pattern analysis. In 2021, the global MEMS inertial sensor CR5 reached more than 85%. Leading overseas manufacturers such as Bosch and Honeywell mostly use the IDM model; domestic manufacturers such as Xindong Lianke mostly use the Fabless model. In the future, some domestic consumer grade MEMS inertial sensor manufacturers are expected to enter the high-performance field and accelerate the localization process of high-performance MEMS inertial sensors.

Humanoid robot sensor market size sensitivity estimation: Six-dimensional force/flexible/inertial sensors correspond to a market space of about 103/103/62 billion yuan

① Assumptions: The robot industry is still in the early stages of development, and the prices of six-dimensional force sensors, high-performance MEMS inertial sensors, and flexible tactile sensors are still high. As downstream high-precision force control and inertial application scenarios continue to expand, especially the demand brought about by the imminent explosion of humanoid robots, these types of sensors may usher in large-scale application and mass production opportunities, and costs are expected to be drastically reduced and rapidly increased.

② Conclusion: Under a neutral assumption, humanoid robots are expected to drive demand for the three main types of sensors to reach 26.8 billion yuan in 2030. According to our estimates, under conservative/neutral/optimistic conditions, the production of humanoid robots is expected to reach about 720,000, 1.03 million, 1.46 million units in 2030. At that time, the six-dimensional force sensor market size is about 72/103/14.6 billion yuan, respectively; the market size of flexible tactile sensors is about 72/103/14.6 billion yuan, respectively; and the IMU market size is about 43/62/87 billion yuan, respectively.

③ Recommended attention: Force sensor targets Keli Sensing, China Aviation Electric Measurement; flexible tactile sensor targets Hanwei Technology; Inertial sensor targets Core Communications, Huayi Technology

Risk warning: The development of artificial intelligence & large model technology falls short of expectations, the commercialization process of humanoid robots falls short of expectations, risk of deviations in industry scale estimates, risk that the information used in research reports will not be updated in a timely manner, etc.