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Big Bank Ratings | Damo: Raising MGM China and Wynn Macau's Market Share Forecast and Lowering Sands Dividend Payout Forecast

Gelonghui Finance ·  Jan 3 13:37
Glonghui, January 3 | Morgan Stanley released a report stating that for Macau gambling stocks, last year was a year of reopening and rapid revenue growth (gambling revenue increased 3.3 times year over year). Despite full recovery, the bank expects overall gambling revenue, mid-time gambling revenue and EBITDA to increase by 29%, 25%, and 33% respectively this year. The bank's gambling revenue forecast for the industry remains basically unchanged, that is, the 2024 midfield gambling revenue forecast is expected to increase 25% year-on-year, to 111% of the 2019 level; next year, it is expected to increase 7% year-on-year, to 119% of the 2019 level. In addition, the bank increased operating expenses and reinvestment cost forecasts for expo companies, maintained a constructive view of the industry, and lowered the industry EBITDA forecast for this year and next two years by 3% to 8.5 billion and 9.2 billion US dollars, respectively, equivalent to 92% and 100% of 2019 levels. Regarding this year's mid-market share forecast, the bank raised its forecast for MGM China and Wynn Macau. The former rose from 13.1% to 13.8%, while the latter rose from 11.9% to 12.7%; however, it lowered the forecasts for Sands China and Macau Expo (excluding satellite casinos), which fell from 28.2% to 27.3%, and 8.8% to 8%, respectively. Furthermore, the bank lowered Sands's dividend forecast, assuming a dividend payout ratio of 50% for today and next two years. The bank will reduce Sands's dividend payout for the next two years from HK$1 to HK$0.75 (equivalent to a projected dividend rate of 3.3%), and from HK$1.99 to HK$0.9 (equivalent to a predicted dividend rate of 3.9%); and maintain a no-dividend forecast for 2023.

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