Source: Securities Times

According to the latest data released by Leyoujia Research Center, in 2023, Shenzhen signed 31621 first-hand housing units online, down 8.2% year on year. This is also the lowest point of new housing market transactions in the past 5 years. The average transaction price of a new home was about 60,000 yuan per square meter, a slight decrease of 1.6% over the previous year.

In 2023, saleable talent housing became one of the highlights of new housing in Shenzhen. According to data from the Midland Property National Research Center, when combined with the number of sellable talent housing transactions, the annual sales volume of new homes in Shenzhen last year exceeded 41,000 units, an increase of more than 20% over the previous year.

According to data from the China Index Research Institute, Shanghai, Hangzhou, Beijing, Guangzhou, Nanjing, Chengdu, Suzhou, Wuhan, Xiamen, and Shenzhen ranked in the top ten corporate cities with sales volume of 10 billion dollars in 2023. A person in charge of the marketing department of a housing enterprise told the reporter that with the exception of luxury housing projects with large price differences, new housing projects currently being sold in Shenzhen generally face sales pressure. The competitive pressure between projects is too high, and they have to attract a stock of customers in the same area through price cuts. Furthermore, in the next few years, a large number of new homes will enter the market in Shenzhen.

Judging from the share of first-hand housing transactions, in 2023, the Shenzhen market also stopped the situation where first-hand housing sales were higher than second-hand for two consecutive years. In terms of the second-hand housing market, 32,768 second-hand housing units were transferred in Shenzhen in 2023, up 51% year on year, but looking at the long-term cycle, this volume is not ideal, 10,000 fewer than the 2008 sales volume. Meanwhile, according to Leyoujia store transaction data, second-hand housing prices in Shenzhen in the fourth quarter of 2023 were around 65,000 yuan per square meter, down 12% from 2022, and 22% lower than the all-time high in the first quarter of 2021. The transaction prices in some areas and real estate have already returned to 2018, and the drop compared to the highest point was as high as 30% to 40%.

Judging from the specific transaction situation, the second-hand housing market in Shenzhen had a small peak in transactions in March of this year, reaching 3,949 units, then continued to hover at a low level. There is still quite a gap from what the industry calls the “boom and bust line” of 5,000 units. Beginning in September, second-hand housing transactions in Shenzhen began to gradually pick up.

Recently, in the context of the policy of 40% down payment for two homes and the loosening of the “luxury house” standard, the Shenzhen property market also showed a certain backlash. However, judging from the reporter's field visits, the effects of the current recovery in the property market in various districts of Shenzhen are not obvious; they are still in a state of volume increase and fall. It is worth noting that in addition to the vast majority of second-hand housing prices falling, the second-hand housing market in Shenzhen also showed characteristics such as an increase in the number of listings and a narrowing of the price gap with new housing.

“Compared to the peak in 2021, the housing prices here have almost all dropped.” In the Bagualing dormitory area of Futian, Shenzhen, manager Chen, a senior real estate agent, peddled several housing units in the neighborhood. “The old and small school district housing was the hardest hit area of this round of falling housing prices. Transactions have picked up in recent times, but the vast majority of them are new buyers. They all want to reduce leverage as much as possible, and there is already very little investment demand.”

Many market participants believe that although the new property market policy can bring short-term heat to the market, low expectations still curb the continued release of housing demand, and prices in the Shenzhen property market are still being adjusted. There are also buyers hoping that the relevant property market policies can be further “accurately” loosened. Li Yujia, chief researcher at the Guangdong Housing Policy Research Center, said that the driving factor behind the recent sharp recovery in second-hand housing transactions in hot cities is “price for volume.” When the price falls to a certain extent, the unit price and total price are manageable, and a second-hand house with a good living atmosphere is the buyer's choice.

Some industry insiders said that after the recent introduction of new property market policies in first-tier cities, it is still unknown whether the growth trend can be maintained for a long time. However, Guan Rongxue, a senior analyst at the Zhuge Data Research Center, said that first-tier cities will continue to play a steady role as the main force across the country. It is expected that with the gradual fermentation of the new policy, the overall market of first-tier cities may usher in more obvious positive changes on a stable basis in 2024.

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