The Zhitong Finance App learned that Huatai Securities released a research report saying that according to the Ministry of Transport, the national rail/civil aviation passenger traffic reached 44.2 million/5.19 million passengers during the New Year's Day holiday in '24, +178/ 140% compared to the same period in '23 and +105/111% compared to the same period in '22. The overall popularity of travel continues, road and railway passenger flow performance is better, and there is strong demand for holiday surrounding tours, seasonal snow and ice tours, and cold weather tours. Outbound travel is at its peak, and the State Administration of Immigration predicts that inbound and outbound holiday travelers will return to 90% of the same period in '19. The bank believes that New Year's Day has set a good start to the recovery of the travel market in '24. Experiential consumption is relatively rigid, all sectors of the travel chain have benefited, and sector sentiment may have recovered due to the holiday effect.

Recommended attention: Juneyao Airlines (603885.SH), Air China (601111.SH), Beijing-Shanghai High Speed Rail (601816.SH).

Huatai Securities's views are as follows:

Aviation: Rapid year-on-year growth, waiting for 1Q24 data to pick up

During the New Year's Day holiday in '24, China's civil aviation is expected to send 5.19 million passengers, up 140.3% from the same period in 2023 and 110.9% (Ministry of Transport). The average number of daily passengers increased by about 10% compared to the 20-year New Year's Day holiday (only one day off). Civil aviation was 76%/104%/103%/113% during the Spring Festival travel season in '23, 40 days/May Day holiday/Dragon Boat Holiday/Mid-Autumn Festival National Day holiday, respectively. The New Year's Day holiday in '24 was shorter than the Mid-Autumn National Day holiday in '23, and the growth rate of civil aviation declined somewhat compared to the same period before the epidemic. Looking ahead, after experiencing the 4Q23 off-season, 1Q24 civil aviation data is expected to pick up with public business and the Spring Festival travel season. Furthermore, the bank believes that with the continued recovery of international routes, China's domestic civil aviation supply and demand structure is expected to be further optimized, and the airline's profit level is still expected to be supported.

Highways and railways: The New Year's Day holiday is short, and rail travel is dominant

During the New Year's Day holiday in '24, the country's railway passenger traffic reached 44.2 million, an increase of 178% over the same period in '23 and an increase of 105% over the same period in '22 (CCTV). On the first day of the holiday season, railway passenger traffic reached 15.8 million, an increase of 32% over the same period in '19 (about 12 million). China's high-speed rail mileage has increased 23% from 354,000 kilometers at the end of 19 to 43,700 kilometers in November '23. Thanks to the tight “eight vertical and eight horizontal” high-speed rail network, the timeliness advantage of rail travel during short and long vacations is prominent. Railway passenger traffic recovered to 86/125/111/ 114% in the same period in '19 during the Spring Festival travel/May Day holiday/Dragon Boat Festival holiday/summer season in '23 (China Railway Administration). The Ministry of Transport estimates that during the New Year's Day holiday, the average daily traffic on highways across the country will be about 35.3 million vehicles, an increase of about 9% over weekdays and an increase of about 26% over the same period in 2023.

Domestic travel: The desire to travel continues to be strong, and seasonal characteristics and cost performance are more popular than destinations

Tourism continues to be popular during the New Year's Day holiday, and the country is showing “two prosperity in the north and south”. According to Ctrip, orders in Harbin were +158% year-on-year during New Year's Day, and orders in Hainan were +147% year-on-year. The number of reservations for snow and ice tours in Changbai Mountain exceeded 200% in the same period in '19 (spring and autumn tours). The natural scenic area is relatively cost-effective, and the passenger flow performance is good. As of 18:00 on 24.1.1, Mount Emei Scenic Area received 107,000 visitors, +11.2% compared to the same period in '23, and ticket revenue +20% compared to the same period (Tianxia Emei Official Account). The number of visitors to Huangshan Scenic Area reached 42,500 during the holiday season, +93% compared to the same period in '23 (Anhui network). Leisure activities such as skiing and hot springs are driving a recovery in the business of specialty themed hotels, shopping and entertainment. On New Year's Day, the number of hot spring hotel orders was +50% (Ctrip), ski resort accommodation +400% (Meituan), and the average daily sales volume for the first 2 days before the outlying islands duty-free holiday was 175 million, +7% compared to the previous weekend.

Immigration: The number of inbound and outbound travelers recovered to 90% in the same period in '19

With the continuous resumption of international flights and the promotion of visa-free entry policies in Southeast Asia and other countries, the New Year's Day holiday ushered in a peak in outbound travel. According to the forecast of the State Administration of Immigration, the average number of visitors entering and leaving the country's ports reached 1.56 million per day during New Year's Day, an increase of more than 500% over the same period in '23, and 90% of the same period in '19. According to data from VFS (2023.12.29), VFS's visa application volume in China has recovered to 50% of the same period in '19. According to Ctrip, the number of outbound travel orders increased +388% year-on-year during New Year's Day, and the number of orders for outbound ski group tour products was +600% year-on-year (2023.12.15 data). On the other hand, rising demand for inbound travel and family visits has brought about an increase in demand in the hotel industry. The popularity of inbound travel and lodging is over +200% compared to the same period in '19 (Ctrip).

Risk warning: The macroeconomic downturn affects the number of travelers; extreme weather affects the number of travelers.