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视源股份(002841):智能交互平板翘楚 出海+AIGC再谱王者版图

Shiyuan Co., Ltd. (002841): Smart interactive tablet leader goes overseas+AIGC recompose the king's layout

東北證券 ·  Dec 31, 2023 00:00

The company started with the display control board business. Currently, it has an advantageous position in the field of smart interactive tablets for education and conferences, and is actively exploring the international market and new smart terminal businesses such as learning machines. The company adopts an asset-light operating model, independent research and development, outsourced manufacturing, strong account inventory control capabilities, and remarkable scale effects and channel resource advantages.

Expand overseas markets, and the interactive smart tablet market is broad. Global TV sales have remained stable in recent years. The company shows that main control boards account for about 1/3 of the global market share, and annual revenue has stabilized at around 7 billion yuan. The penetration rate of the domestic educational interactive tablet market is already high. With a stable birth population, the market is mainly updated and iterated, and the company's Shivo brand accounts for nearly half of the market share. The smart conference tablet market space is large. In 2022, there were about 52 million business entities nationwide, while in recent years the annual sales volume of conference tablets was less than 500,000 units. The company's MAXHUB brand accounts for about 30% of the market share, and there is still plenty of market space in the future. The overseas education market shipped 1.257 million units of interactive smart tablets in 2022. According to earlier statistics, the penetration rate is still less than 20%. In 2022, the overseas conference market shipped 284,000 units of interactive smart tablets, and the penetration rate was also far lower than that of the domestic market. The company actively explores overseas markets, strengthens overseas brand building, and increases overseas marketers. The company already has a strong first-mover advantage, technical advantage, scale effect and cost advantage in domestic competition for many years, and is expected to grow rapidly along with the increase in overseas market penetration.

AIGC is an important format for interactive implementation, and traditional teaching conferences welcome innovation. Under the new wave of interactive transformation led by AIGC, the company used the accumulation of many years of experience and data in the field of education to launch the Shivo teaching model, empowering efficient teaching aids, and greatly liberating and improving teachers' productivity in multiple teaching scenarios. The company uses AI big models to reshape intelligent interactive tablets. Long-term accumulation in the field of education can form a data moat, enhance user stickiness while continuously improving the competitiveness of big models, and drive added value in software and hardware revenue.

The company's total revenue for 2023-2025 is estimated to be 218.41 billion yuan, 254.59 billion yuan, and 29.125 billion yuan respectively, with growth rates of 4.05%, 16.57%, and 14.40%, respectively, and net profit to mother of 17.46, 22.74 billion yuan and 2,794 billion yuan respectively.

First coverage, giving a “buy” rating. Based on the dual analysis of comparable companies in the industry and PEG, the target market value of 45.4 billion yuan was calculated to be given 26 times PE over the next 6 months.

Risk warning: Competition in the industry intensifies, overseas market development falls short of expectations, and profit and valuation judgments fall short of expectations.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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