2023年港股蓝筹表现最好的是电动车股蓝筹新贵理想汽车(02015)，全日收147.1元， 2023年累计大涨91.536%，相对联想(00992)的逾58%以及中石油(00857)44.5%升幅来说，表现遥遥领先。其实并非恒生蓝筹股的苹果产业链企业高伟电子(01415)全年涨幅达到112%更受关注，消费电子在下半年复苏的势头不减，值得投资者跨年关注。 2023年，有达五只蓝筹股全年跌幅超过50%，最弱蓝筹是体育用品股李宁(02331)，全年下跌69%，收20.9港元。其实整体消费股表现都不济人意。拖累恒生指数最多的肯定还是恒生科技股板块，但是恒生科技股指数的大幅下挫，其实也是在纠错前些年暴涨的互联网平台估值。从纯科学的角度看，香港的恒生科技股指数，其实并不能代表中国大陆的科技实力，只不过电子科技沾边系列。中国内地的核心科技成果，大部分还是掌握在大型国企、央企手上，尤其军工领域。当初互联网大平台都在估值最高的时候在香港上市，尤其从美国中概回归不少大型蓝筹，更拖累了整体香港的股市的流动性。The Hang Seng Healthcare Index has generally produced good companies over the past few years, and they deserve a lot of attention from investors in 2024.
The Hong Kong market finally fell in 2023, ranking last in the world in terms of growth.
Hong Kong stocks have been falling for four years in a row, just in time for the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike cycle. Hong Kong stocks fell by a cumulative total of 2,734 points in 2023, or 13.82%, outperforming major global stock markets. Among them, Japanese stocks and **** stocks, which were the first to close the market, both surged 28% and nearly 27%. As of December 28, 2023, US stocks had surged by more than 13%, far away from Hong Kong stocks.
The best blue chip performer in Hong Kong stock in 2023 was the electric vehicle stock Blue Chip Upstart Ideal Auto (02015), which collected a full day revenue of 147.1 yuan and surged 91.536% in 2023. Compared with Lenovo (00992)'s increase of over 58% and CNPC (00857)'s 44.5% increase, the performance is far ahead. In fact, Gaowei Electronics (01415), an Apple industry chain company that is not Hang Seng's blue-chip company, received even more attention, with an annual increase of 112%. Consumer electronics's recovery in the second half of the year was unabated, and it is worth investors' attention on New Year's Eve. In 2023, five blue chip stocks fell by more than 50% for the year. The weakest blue chip was sporting goods stock Li Ning (02331), which fell 69% for the whole year to close at HK$20.9. In fact, the overall performance of consumer stocks was unsatisfactory. It is definitely the Hang Seng Technology stock sector that has dragged down the Hang Seng Index the most, but the sharp decline in the Hang Seng Technology Stock Index actually corrected the valuation of internet platforms that soared a few years ago. From a purely scientific point of view, Hong Kong's Hang Seng Technology Stock Index does not actually represent mainland China's technological strength; it is just a series of electronic technology links. Most of mainland China's core scientific and technological achievements are still in the hands of large state-owned enterprises and central enterprises, especially in the military industry. At the beginning, major internet platforms were listed in Hong Kong when their valuations were at their highest. In particular, many large blue chips returned from the US, which further dragged down the liquidity of the Hong Kong stock market as a whole.
Instead, the Hang Seng Healthcare Index has generally produced good companies over the past few years, which should be given considerable attention by investors in 2024. In particular, in the field of innovative pharmaceuticals going overseas, good things will continue until the end of 2023. The Zhitong Finance App learned that according to the latest records from the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA), so far this year, the agency's Drug Evaluation and Research Center (CDER) has approved 56 new treatments, an increase of 51% over the 37 new treatments approved in 2022. The following is a summary of the biomedical sector announcements of the Hong Kong stock market in the last three months, almost all of which involved innovative drugs going overseas:
1. Boan Biotech (06955.HK) innovative drugs BA1105 and BA1301 have both been certified by the FDA as orphan drugs indicated for pancreatic cancer treatment.
2. Fu Hong Han Lin (02696.HK): Injectable HLX42 (targeted EGFR antibody-novel DNA topoisomerase I inhibitor conjugate drug) was granted fast track status by the US Food and Drug Administration.
3. Yuanda Pharmaceutical (00512.HK) acquired Tianjin Tianbian to anchor the trillion-dollar chronic disease market. TLx250-cdx submitted a BLA application to the FDA to consolidate its leading position in nuclear drugs.
4. Hualing Pharmaceutical (02552.HK) has submitted an IND application to the US FDA to promote overseas clinical trials of second-generation glucokinase activators.
5. Goodwill B (02256.HK): CSF-1R inhibitor pimicotinib (ABSK021) was recognized by the FDA as a fast track.
6. Shengnuo Pharmaceutical-B (02257.HK): RV-1770, an innovative mRNA vaccine against human respiratory syncytial virus, was approved by the US FDA for clinical trials of new drugs.
7. CSPC Group (01093.HK) submitted a new drug marketing application for irinotecan liposome injection to the US FDA.
8. Lepu Bio-B (02157.HK): MRG004A has been certified as an orphan drug by the FDA for the treatment of pancreatic cancer. MRG003 for the treatment of recurrent metastatic nasopharyngeal cancer (R/M NPC) has been granted fast-track status by the FDA.
9. Xiansheng Pharmaceutical (02096.HK): The SIM0501 new drug clinical trial application was approved by the US Food and Drug Administration.
10. Keji Pharmaceutical-B (02171.HK): CT071 has been approved by the FDA by IND to treat relapsed/refractory multiple myeloma or relapsed/refractory primary plasmacytic leukemia.
11. Xianruida Medical-B (06669.HK): Announces that the company's product, paclitaxel coated percutaneous endothelial angioplasty (PTA) balloon catheter AcoArt Litos, was approved by the US Food and Drug Administration on November 29, 2023 for an Investigational Device Exemption (IDE) application.
12. Columbotai Bio-B (06990.HK): The main product A400 (EP0031) was granted orphan drug qualification by the US Food and Drug Administration.
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According to a recent research report by Xiangcai Securities, the internationalization of innovative domestic drugs has been implemented frequently. Since the first PD-1 was successfully registered overseas, domestically produced whitening drugs have been approved and marketed by the FDA, and innovative biopharmaceuticals independently developed domestically have gradually been recognized by the regulated market, and the internationalization logic has been verified once again. What attracted the most investors' attention to Hong Kong stocks in 2024 was not the height of the Hang Seng Index's rebound; on the contrary, a large number of biomedical companies were mining gold overseas. The financial report may have been an unexpected gain.
According to a recent research report by Guoxin Securities, 2023Q4 is the best time to lay out the pharmaceutical market for the next three years. The pharmaceutical industry is in a major cycle of basic orientation (stable and sustainable demand, emergence of high-quality supply, continuous withdrawal of general supply, continuous improvement of autonomous and controllable capabilities) and a clear long-term development path (innovation, compliance, internationalization). Over the past 5 years, the R&D intensity of domestic pharmaceutical companies has continued to increase. Revenue growth and non-profit growth have been weaker than R&D growth, and the pharmaceutical industry is in the process of continuous transformation and upgrading.
Many institutions concluded at the end of the year that the US dollar index will fall in 2024 and that there will be a wave of market recovery in the Hong Kong stock market. The author remains cautious about the Hang Seng Index for the whole year. The core is that Hong Kong stocks lack major market capitalization leaders in the sector. The Hang Seng Internet Index, which had the largest market capitalization a few years ago, was just a rebound, but if you had to say that growth is still the same as before, it's probably wishful thinking. Therefore, we can only look for opportunities in the structured market of Hong Kong stocks. Investors are reminded that many central enterprises+state-owned enterprises may indeed reflect a return in value in the HK market. In particular, many central state-owned enterprises whose stock prices have fallen below their net assets, and enterprises with large AH price differences, have opportunities for “privatization” under the leadership of the era of state-owned enterprise reform (the author's personal prediction).
Hong Kong stocks have responded to the recent wave of consumer electronics rebound in the fourth quarter of 2024. Basically, they all revolve around the Apple+Huawei series for valuation repairs. However, it is often difficult for Hong Kong stocks to keep up. When international investment banks are consistently raising their target prices, it is best to be more cautious about the media's interpretation. The core of the Hong Kong market over the past few years is not how low valuations are, but rather the lack of liquidity (where does the money come from).
Good luck in 2024!!
