Industrial and commercial photovoltaics are deeply accumulated, and distributed energy is actively growing. The company was founded in 2008, and the development process can be roughly divided into three stages: 1) Starting photovoltaic materials: in the early days, mainly engaged in R&D, manufacturing and sales of crystalline silicon wafers; a module factory was established in 2016; and a half-piece large-size module production workshop was completed and put into operation in 2022, with an annual production capacity of 500 MWp. 2) Transforming distributed photovoltaics: Due to increased competition and trade frictions in the photovoltaic manufacturing industry, downstream distributed photovoltaics benefit from state subsidies, and the overall profit level is high. The company sought strategic transformation and completed the Ministry of Housing and Construction's photoelectric construction integration project in 2013. It was listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange in 2018 to raise funds to build its own photovoltaic power plants; by 2019, it had completed a total installed capacity of 1 GW of distributed photovoltaic power plants. 3) Expanding new distributed energy scenarios: Based on customer accumulation in the field of distributed photovoltaics, the company entered the smart electric vehicle charging business in 2020; the energy storage system was put into operation in 2021, and the integrated layout of optical storage and charging accelerated.
Industry and commerce savings alone are about to start, and the Green Certificate/CCER unlocks potential. According to data released by the National Energy Administration, 78.42 GW of new PV installations were added in the first half of 2023, of which 19.44 GW of industrial and commercial distributed photovoltaic installations were added, accounting for 25% of the new PV installed capacity, which is one of the main drivers of PV installed capacity growth. The upstream manufacturing side of the photovoltaic and lithium battery industry continues to release large amounts of production capacity, leading to phased overcapacity, driving a sharp drop in the price of photovoltaic modules and cells, and reducing the investment costs of industrial and commercial photovoltaic/energy storage power plant systems, further increasing the return on investment in power plant projects. It is expected that more distributed industrial and commercial roof resources with good profits will be released in the future. Combined with the subsequent implementation of the Green Certificate/CCER, it is expected to bring more profit space to distributed energy.
Clever card points to industrial and commercial circuits, distributed energy investment operators. Resource development: As of December 31, 2022, the company has obtained more than 12 million square meters of roof resources, involving 951 industrial enterprises. It is in a leading position in the field of industrial and commercial photovoltaic power plant development, maintaining a high market share. Financial strength: The company has stable cash flow, smooth implementation of superimposed debt conversion, and relatively sufficient capital reserves. Operation and maintenance capacity: The company has set up a special power plant operation and maintenance department, set up a professional maintenance team, and developed a three-in-one intelligent monitoring, operation and maintenance platform for photovoltaic power plants, energy storage, and charging piles. It now has rich experience in the operation and maintenance of distributed photovoltaic power plants. Collaborative support: The company has implementation experience of distributed photovoltaic power plants of GW grade or above, has a relatively complete distributed photovoltaic industry chain, and superimposed subsequent inverter business operation. Industrial collaboration is expected to seize the opportunity.
We predict that the company's earnings per share for 2023-2025 will be 0.46, 0.59, and 0.78 yuan, respectively. Referring to comparable company valuations, the company will be given 23 times PE in 24 years, corresponding to a target price of 13.57 yuan, and a purchase rating for the first time.
Risk warning
Demand for optical storage falls short of expectations, risk of gross margin fluctuations, risk of industrial and commercial energy storage, inverters, charging piles and other business development falling short of expectations, risk of interest rate fluctuations, and changes in assumptions affecting calculation results, etc.