Investment advice: First coverage, with an increase in holdings rating. The company's hydrogen fuel cell core product matrix is comprehensive to meet diversified application needs and achieve the layout of electric stack switching systems. Along with the growth rate of fuel cell electric stacks and systems with a CAGR of over 98% in 23-27, the company's fuel cell core product matrix is comprehensive, superimposed and driven by localization, large-scale, and integrated layout, which is expected to maintain its leading position in the industry and give it an increase rating.
The company ranked first in the electric stack shipping industry and second in the system shipping industry in 2022. The company's localization+scale+integrated three-wheel drive is expected to maintain its leading position in the industry. Domestic replacement of membrane electrodes began in 2020. Buyers gradually switched from Ballard to Hongji Innovation, and membrane electrode products were replaced domestically and gradually applied on a large scale. As of 2022, China's hydrogen fuel cell stack market is 716.6MW, and the company's hydrogen fuel cell stack shipments are 175 MW, accounting for 24.4% of the market share, ranking first in the industry.
Fuel cell systems are expected to be shipped at a CAGR of 99.2% in 23-27. The company's national market layout and large-scale production are expected to maintain market competitiveness. According to Sullivan's forecast, fuel cell electric stack shipments in 2023-2027 will increase from 1966 MW to 30,342 MW, and the shipping market will increase from 3.4 billion yuan to 24.8 billion yuan. Shipments in 23-27 are 98.2% CAGR, and the 23-27 market CAGR is 64.5%. As far as hydrogen fuel cell systems are concerned, China has mastered the core technology of fuel cell systems and their key components, and can achieve independent research and localization. 23-27 shipments CAGR 99.2%, market size CAGR 64.2%. The company has a national market layout and production capacity expansion according to local conditions. The main products produced by the company have been operating steadily in 20 provincial administrative regions across the country. In the future, the company plans to expand production capacity around the country around the country's hydrogen energy industry development policy orientation and planning and market demand, seize market share, further reduce average production costs, achieve localized production, and increase its advantage in large-scale production and competition.
Catalysts: Production capacity has been successfully put into operation, and integration has achieved remarkable cost reduction results.
Risk warning: Product development progress falls short of expectations, and downstream demand falls short of expectations.