Key points of investment

Commercial release of quadrivalent influenza vaccine, improved sales channels

The company's influenza vaccine sales revenue for the first three quarters of 2023 was about 371 million yuan, an increase of 476.47% over the previous year. Among them, influenza vaccine sales revenue in the third quarter of 2023 reached 149 million yuan in a single quarter. The quadrivalent influenza conjugate vaccine is an exclusive domestic product, driving the high growth of the company's vaccine product line. However, with the company's routine vaccine sales volume, the sales platform gradually matured, and channel preparations were made for subsequent commercialization of major vaccines such as the 13-valent pneumococcal vaccine.

COVID-19 vaccine-related stocks were cleared of depreciation, and the battle was carried out in a light package

The company's asset impairment losses totaled about 787 million yuan in the first three quarters of 2023, mainly due to the decline in COVID-19 vaccine inventory prices. After extensive calculation, the negative impact on the balance sheet due to reduced demand for COVID-19 vaccines declined sharply. In the future, the company's main product line will revolve around conventional vaccine products such as the quadrivalent influenza conjugate vaccine and the 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine that will be marketed later.

The 13-valent pneumonia conjugate vaccine is about to be NDA, and there are plenty of research lines

In addition to the influenza vaccine that has already been marketed, the company also has a rich research pipeline, including 1) MCV4 expansion of the quadrivalent influenza vaccine already on the market: phase IIIb clinical trials for 4-6 year olds have begun, and it is also intended to expand the applicable population to adolescents and adults. Clinical trials for people aged 7-59 and above have been approved by the Drug Administration and are being prepared and carried out;

2) PCV13i for 13-valent pneumonia conjugate vaccine: It is expected that pre-NDA related processes will be initiated within 2023; at this stage, only 1 imported Pfizer and 2 domestic 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine companies from Watson and Kangtai are domestic, and the market pattern is good.

3) Innovative vaccine field: The PBPV vaccine is currently undergoing phase Ib clinical trials; the recombinant shingles vaccine plans to launch phase I clinical trials for intramuscular injection and inhalation in Canada within the year;

Profit forecasting and valuation

We expect the company's revenue for 2023-2025 to be 3.20/738/886 million, respectively, up -69.06%/130.56%/20.00% year-on-year; based on the increase in routine vaccine sales and subsequent major vaccines being in the middle and late stages of clinical trials, they have great potential, and maintain an “increase” rating.

Risk warning:

The increase in sales of new products is uncertain, and the progress of research and development of products under development is uncertain.