Source: Gelonghui
Is it New Year's today?
After a long period of “rainy and rainy”, the market finally showed a trend of turning back and forth, and ushered in a major rebound after a long absence.
During this period, A-shares went from a 3,000-point defensive battle to a 2,900 defensive battle, and Hong Kong stocks also went through a full year of decline. New Year's Day is right around the corner, and there are only 3 days left in 2023. Is the trumpet for counterattacking the New Year's Eve market going off?
The stock exchange rate rose sharply
Today, the Hong Kong and A-share markets swept away their previous haze and ushered in a major collective counterattack.
In the afternoon, the three major indices of Hong Kong stocks rose rapidly. At one point, the Hang Seng Technology Index rose more than 4%, the Hang Seng Index closed up 2.52%, and the State-owned Enterprises Index closed up 2.87%.
On the market, large technology stocks are picking up strongly, domestic housing stocks and property management stocks have joined hands to boost, and new energy circuit stocks such as photovoltaics and lithium batteries, which have been dormant for a long time, are also concentrating their strength; big financial stocks, automobile stocks, etc. have performed brilliantly.
A-shares have also taken a “edge”. By the close, more than 4,400 shares in the two markets had risen, trading 884.4 billion yuan throughout the day. The Shanghai Index rose 1.38%, the GEM Index rose 3.85%, and the Shenzhen Stock Exchange Index, Science and Innovation 50, and the Beijing Stock Exchange 50 all rose more than 2%. On the market, new energy circuit stocks strongly led the market. Sectors such as photovoltaics, lithium batteries, and energy storage all swelled higher, and insurance stocks and liquor stocks rebounded across the board.
Capital began a crazy return to buying. Today, Northbound Capital made net purchases of 13.558 billion yuan, with a net inflow of 15.826 billion yuan, including a net inflow of 7.177 billion yuan from Shanghai Stock Connect and 8.649 billion yuan from Shenzhen Stock Connect.
In addition to the stock market, the foreign exchange market also experienced a rise.
The RMB continued to rise today. The offshore renminbi is currently reported at 7.1035 against the US dollar, surging more than 400 points during the day, and the onshore renminbi rising nearly 350 points against the US dollar to 7.1007.
Regarding today's big rebound, some market sources analyzed that, firstly, the market has fallen to a certain position, and Hong Kong A-shares have bottomed out; secondly, there is a huge “bailout” of new energy today. According to market claims, drift funds are making up for individual new energy stocks; there is also the return of foreign capital and the increase in the RMB exchange rate.
Judging from the news, today, the Supreme People's Procuratorate issued “Opinions on Giving Full Play to the Role of Procuratorate Functions in Legal Services to Guarantee High-Quality Financial Development”. In terms of criminal prosecution, the focus is on increasing the punishment of financial crimes in areas with high financial risk, severely cracking down on securities crimes such as financial fraud and market manipulation, resolutely punishing financial corruption crimes, and punishing financial crimes, deterring financial crimes, and preventing financial crimes through accurate and strong criminal prosecution.
It is worth noting that the Social Security Fund is also sending out signals. The relevant departments of the National Social Security Fund Council interpreted the “National Social Security Fund Domestic Investment Management Measures (Draft for Comments)” and stated that the “Administrative Measures” focus on promoting the institutionalization and standardization of social security fund management and operation, enriching the social security fund allocation toolbox in terms of broadening the scope of investment and increasing the breadth of investment, and creating conditions for fund preservation and appreciation.
Wang Zhibin, director of the equity asset department of the Social Security Foundation, said that recently, with the support of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, the Social Security Foundation is rapidly promoting participation in the private offering of listed companies as a strategic investor. This will further open up investment space, inject long-term capital into the capital market, and better support the development of the capital market.
Is the New Year's Eve market starting? What do you think of 2024?
This year is coming to an end, how will the market go in 2024?
Previously, many mainstream foreign banks, including Goldman Sachs, Nomura, and Morgan Stanley, all agreed that A-share valuations were at a historically low level, and next year is expected to usher in an opportunity for a sharp decline.
Gao Ting, general manager of the research department and chief strategy analyst at Nomura Orient International Securities, said that it is expected that in the next 12 months, the market will have room to rise. On the one hand, there will be valuation repair, and on the other hand, profit improvement. Although there is some uncertainty, there are many positive factors overall.
Liu Rui, the proposed chief multi-asset investment officer of BlackRock Jianxin Wealth Management, pointed out that looking ahead to the first half of 2024, both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks have relatively good allocation opportunities. Whether compared horizontally or vertically, valuations in both major markets are currently at a low level.
Morgan Stanley also set a target point of 3,850 points for the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index by the end of 2024 in its recently released 2024 China Stock Strategy Outlook.
Goldman Sachs Research predicts that the MSCI China Index and the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index constituent stocks will achieve profit growth of 10% and 11% respectively in 2024, which is close to this year's performance.
In terms of Hong Kong stocks, Xu Changtai, Asia Pacific's chief market strategist at Morgan Asset Management, believes that in January next year, or even the entire first quarter, we can continue to be optimistic about Hong Kong stock prospects. Since the interest rate on US 10-year treasury bonds has fallen below 3.9%, the current Fed is more willing to adopt a more flexible attitude to bury monetary policy, which is beneficial to stock market performance, and the trend of various US stock indices is similar, reflecting not only optimism about technology stocks, but also industries and small-cap stocks that are highly relevant to the economy. He also expects that the US can be expected to avoid a recession, increase the stock allocation in the investment portfolio, and suggest that each share ratio can account for half.
Guoxin Securities said that at the December FOMC meeting, the Federal Reserve changed the 2024 interest rate policy. In terms of domestic economic policy, the real estate policy has continued to be loosened recently and the monetary interest rate policy has been further relaxed, which is expected to support the gradual recovery of economic demand. Combining overseas interest rate liquidity and marginal optimization of domestic economic policies, we continue to recommend increasing Hang Seng Technology's allocation.
editor/tolk