Source: Yaya Hong Kong Stock Exchange
Against the backdrop of poor market conditions this year, NEVs are one of the few profitable sectors. The NEV index rose more than 10% during the year. For example, A-shares were led by the smart car company Huawei. The biggest increase was Cyrus, which rose more than 80% during the year.
Even for Hong Kong stocks, where the Hang Seng Index index has been falling continuously for 4 years,$LI AUTO-W (02015.HK)$The increase during the year was also over 70%.$XPENG-W (09868.HK)$An increase of nearly 40%,$BYD COMPANY (01211.HK)$Up more than 12%, performance is a bit sluggish$NIO-SW (09866.HK)$It also fell 9% during the year. The performance of all car companies was good, at least outperforming the market by a large margin. This is a reflection of the continuous progress of the NEV industry.
At the same time, Chinese brands are constantly attacking the NEV circuit. As of yesterday's M9 press conference, 7 Chinese NEV companies have released new models priced at more than 500,000 this year. There is a joke saying, “If you don't work hard, you'll only be able to drive BBA and Lexus in the future.”
In the first two years, when the penetration rate of new energy sources was still 15%, the market capital chose BYD, which focused on the medium to low price market, and its share expanded rapidly. However, after the tram penetration rate increased to a certain level, car companies developing high-end models are more favored by market capital.
Over the past few years, the rapid rise of new energy luxury vehicles in China is the gradual decline of traditional BBA fuel vehicle brands. Whether it's 300,000 to 400,000 or 400,000 to 500,000, the new energy models currently launched by luxury fuel vehicles are basically difficult to challenge Chinese new energy luxury car brands.
Moreover, judging from the current new energy transformation strategies for fuel vehicles, they are basically treating the symptoms rather than the root causes, and we have completely fallen into the dilemma of innovators who need both. Over time, it is entirely possible that the price range above 500,000 will also be taken over by Chinese new energy luxury car brands.
Before 2020, new energy vehicles were not favored by the market due to reasons such as expensive batteries, poor interior, immature technology, and poor tram driving experience. This also made traditional fuel vehicle companies that have occupied the automobile market for decades despise them, and have been slow to lay out new energy models. Meanwhile, Tesla, BYD, and “Wei Xiaoli” quickly penetrated the market share under policy guidance, and in the superposition process, there was continuous competition between brands for product power, and even Tesla was forced to cut prices and promote.
On the other hand, the overall technical level of the NEV industry continues to improve. Many companies have broken through technical bottlenecks, and the improvement in the supply chain level has laid a good foundation for the rise of NEV luxury car brands in China. More and more consumers are beginning to improve on trams, accept this new technological iteration in the automotive industry, and are beginning to be willing to get involved with trams.
This led to a situation. When various new forces began to target high-end car companies against the BBA, this meant that the BBA fell out of the price range below 500,000. Whether in terms of configuration, interior, or vehicle costs, domestic trams have already begun to sell most fuel vehicles at the same price, and traditional fuel vehicles have only a brand advantage. Also, in the past two years, traditional fuel vehicle companies such as BBA have rushed to enter the NEV competition queue through joint ventures or technology investments.
However, judging from BBA's tram sales and pricing, it is not as competitive as fuel vehicles in the NEV ranks.
In January-October of this year, BMW sold 78,000 new energy models in China, while BMW's minimum price started at 300,000 yuan, reaching a maximum price of millions, and even models priced at over 2 million. If you compare this to the ideal Cyrus at the same price, the sales volume of 78,000 vehicles is only the level of domestic NEV sales in one quarter.
Looking at the dynamics, in the medium term, it is difficult for fuel luxury car brands such as BBA to return to their peak a few years ago. In the current era of new energy, car companies have entered the stage of intelligent, self-developed smart driving, and self-developed ecosystems. It is no longer a simple struggle for range and various materials. Moreover, the pace of technological iteration in the NEV industry is much faster than that of fuel vehicles. Unless car companies are willing to make drastic reforms, time will only make the gap between NEVs and fuel vehicles wider.
It's no exaggeration to say that in 5-10 years, we are actually likely to see Chinese new energy luxury car brands win 60-80% of the market share.
This corresponds to why China's NEV companies and related supply chains are leading the way in the Hang Seng Technology Index this year, such as Ideal, Xiaopeng, Xiaomi, and BYD Electronics.
High-end new energy vehicles are a major trend, but it is still difficult to predict who will be better at the high-end. Just like the range below 300,000, most of them are beta markets, making it difficult to generate a car company with huge increases.
Exactly, Internet companies also experienced a round of extreme sentiment slump last Friday, and the chips were once again cleared. Previously, the sentiment of Hong Kong stocks was a bit weak, but it can be seen that the market quickly became rational within two or three days. With policies fully digested, now is a good opportunity to set up new energy vehicles+internet companies.
Editor/Corrine