The Zhitong Finance App learned that Guotai Junan released a research report saying that banks have lowered deposit interest rates again, and it is expected that customer demand for insurance savings will further increase. Especially when insurance companies have not pre-paid the 24-year opening premium, it is expected that lowering deposit interest rates will become an important catalyst for customers to buy good insurance products. With strong demand for savings from residents combined with sufficient favorable preparations from insurance companies, it is expected that in 2024, Kickoff NBV will exceed expectations and maintain the “increase in holdings” in the industry.

Guotai Junan's views are as follows:

Banks are once again lowering deposit interest rates, which is expected to catalyze customer demand for insurance savings. Under pressure to narrow net interest spreads, banks generally reduce debt costs by lowering deposit interest rates. On December 22, the five major state-owned banks and some joint stock banks further lowered medium- and long-term deposit and withdrawal interest rates, by 10 to 25 basis points, respectively. Affected by this, it is expected that customer demand for insurance savings will further increase. Especially when insurance companies do not pre-pay the 24-year good start premium, it is expected that lowering deposit interest rates will become an important catalyst for customers to buy good insurance products.

Kaimon focuses on customer savings needs, and “product service” creates a differentiated competitive advantage in wealth management. At the end of the year and the beginning of the year, residents have strong asset allocation needs. Currently, insurance companies grasp the savings needs of customers with low risk preferences and create a differentiated competitive advantage in wealth management through “product services”. On the product side, major listed insurers had a good start in '24. On the basis of annuity/incremental life universal with a main estimated interest rate of 3.0%, many companies tried a dividend annuity/incremental life universal product form with a pricing interest rate of no more than 2.5%. While providing customers with diversified choices, it also helps insurance companies reduce debt costs in the long term.

In terms of service, thanks to the large insurance purchase needs of wealth management customers, some insurance companies have refined and customized wealth management and inheritance services for high-net-worth customers, forming a differentiated competitive advantage. For example, in December, China Taibao launched the “Family Heritage Family Office” brand to integrate the Group's internal and external resources to provide customers with an exclusive service guarantee of “1 Family Affairs Officer, 1 Family Affairs Specialist, N Internal Family Affairs Experts, and N Family Alliance Ecosystem Resources”.

Simultaneous supply and demand contributed to a successful start in 24, and NBV exceeded expectations. The demand side is expected to increase due to the impact of falling interest rates on bank deposits; the supply-side completed annual results 23 years earlier, reserving more preparation time for a good start in 24. Preparations for customer management, team expansion and training are adequate. At the same time, the base affected by the release of the epidemic at the end of '22 is low, providing favorable conditions for the supply side. It is expected that the balance between supply and demand will bring a good start in 24, and NBV will exceed expectations.

Risk warning: Stricter regulations; customer demand falls short of expectations; capital markets fluctuate.