金刚石线切割高硬脆材料技术工艺成熟，市场有望高速增长。金刚石线切割技术以其切割速度快、加工精度高、切割损耗低、效率高且环保等综合优点，成为脆硬材料切割的主流技术。硅片切割向“细线化、高速化、自动化以及智能化”发展，对切割耗材提出更高要求。按照2023、2025、2030 年全球光伏装机需求370GW、532.8GW和1071.65GW 估算，对应的全球金刚石线需求量分别为87.69、137.90 和290.64 亿元，呈快速增长态势。国内金刚石线企业竞争格局稳定，行业参与者有望享受行业发展红利。另一方面，各主要厂商产能扩张速度较快，碳丝金刚石线供给充裕，提高产品质量、降本增效、开拓钨丝金刚石线等差异化产品成各企业竞争要点。Key points of investment:
The company is a domestic high-tech enterprise specializing in R&D, production and sales of diamond wire.
The company's diamond wire is mainly used for cutting hard and brittle materials such as crystalline silicon and sapphire. Through independent research and development and equipment technology transformation, the company has achieved comprehensive promotion and application of industry-leading “20-line machine” equipment, effectively improving the company's production efficiency. The company grasps the strong market demand of the photovoltaic industry, continuously expands diamond wire production capacity, and achieves growth in scale and performance.
Diamond wire cutting technology for high hard and brittle materials is mature, and the market is expected to grow rapidly. Diamond wire cutting technology has the comprehensive advantages of fast cutting speed, high processing accuracy, low cutting loss, high efficiency, and environmental protection, and has become the mainstream technology for cutting brittle and hard materials. Silicon wafer cutting is developing towards “thinning, high speed, automation and intelligence”, putting higher demands on cutting consumables. According to estimates of global PV installed demand of 370 GW, 532.8 GW, and 1071.65 GW in 2023, 2025, and 2030, the corresponding global demand for diamond wire was 87.69 billion yuan, 137.90 billion yuan, and 29.064 billion yuan, respectively, showing a rapid growth trend. The competitive pattern of domestic diamond wire companies is stable, and industry participants are expected to enjoy the dividends of industry development. On the other hand, production capacity of major manufacturers is expanding rapidly, and the supply of carbon diamond wire is abundant. Improving product quality, reducing costs and increasing efficiency, and developing differentiated products such as tungsten wire have become key points of competition for various enterprises.
The company grasps product trends, and capacity expansion enhances scale effects. The company reduced the mainstream wire diameter of its carbon steel diamond wire to 33/34 μm, and the minimum wire diameter to 30 microns in accordance with the market's requirements for “thinning” products. At the same time, the company increased its investment in tungsten diamond wire. Through technological improvements and process improvements, the company's product quality has been recognized by the market.
The company's diamond wire customers in the field of silicon wafer cutting include companies such as GCL, Longji, Tongwei, Beijing Express, and CNC. In the future, demand for its products is expected to continue to grow as downstream silicon wafer customers expand production volume. At the same time, with the expansion of the company's production capacity, the company's profitability has steadily increased, gradually narrowing the gap with leading companies.
The company lays out the fields of high-purity quartz sand and hydrogen energy to build a comprehensive service platform company for new energy materials. The company plans to acquire Lihui New Materials and lay out high-purity quartz sand. Lihui New Materials has the capacity to mass produce medium and outer sand, and the raw materials and processing verification of medium and inner ore meet market demand standards. Lihui's new materials production capacity is 5,000 tons/year, and the company plans to increase production capacity to 20,000 to 30,000 tons/year after the acquisition is completed. The supply side of high-purity quartz sand is highly concentrated, and the short-term supply of inner layer sand is not elastic.
The industry is expected to be booming, and industry participants are expected to enjoy market dividends. Furthermore, the company achieved the manufacturing capacity of high-performance carbon-based composite bipolar plates through the acquisition of Nexang New Energy, and improved the “integrated light, hydrogen and storage” layout, thus forming a new performance growth point.
Investment advice: The company's net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies in 2023, 2024, and 2025 is expected to be 235 million yuan, 375 million yuan and 535 million yuan respectively, and the corresponding fully diluted EPS is 0.84 yuan, 1.35 yuan, and 1.92 yuan respectively. Based on the closing price of 15.35 yuan/share on December 26, the corresponding PE is 18.20, 11.40, and 8.00 times, respectively. The company's core product is diamond wire. Comparable listed companies are Meichang Co., Ltd. and Gaosec Co., Ltd. The company's valuation is higher than the average of comparable companies in the same industry. As a professional diamond wire manufacturer, the company's business performance is showing a sharp upward trend. At the same time, the high-purity quartz sand and hydrogen energy business are expected to form new performance growth points and maintain the company's “increase” investment rating.
Risk warning: Diamond wire production capacity is expanding rapidly, and competition is increasing risk; the company's notes and accounts receivable are increasing rapidly, increasing the risk of the company's capital occupation and bad debt losses.
