Jinwu Financial News | Huaan Securities said that on the revenue side, Xiaomi Group (01810) was affected by the global industrial cycle in 2022. Global consumer electronics demand was sluggish, and the company's revenue showed negative growth, but since this year, the year-on-year decline in the company's revenue has narrowed, and an inflection point has appeared. On the profit side, gross profit and adjusted net profit both showed impressive growth. Among them, gross profit for the first three quarters of this year increased 15.6% year on year, and gross margin reached 21%, +4.3 pct year on year, mainly driven by cost reduction and efficiency of the three major businesses.
The bank mentioned that after the launch of Surge OS, Xiaomi officially upgraded the “mobile phone x IoT” strategy to a “human driver” full ecosystem strategy. By integrating the four major operating systems MIUI (Xiaomi mobile phone), VelaOS (IoT device), MinaOS (micro kernel security system), and Xiaomi car OS, it was possible to achieve low latency deep interconnection between mobile terminals, smart home devices, and multiple devices such as Xiaomi cars. It is expected that the entire ecosystem of “people and cars” will further enhance the stickiness of Xiaomi users, expand the number of users, and achieve all-round empowerment of the company's major businesses.
The bank expects Xiaomi's revenue in 2023/2024/2025 to be 2688/3094/357.7 billion yuan, -4%/+15%/+16% year-on-year. The adjusted net profit was 173/150/18.6 billion yuan, and the adjusted net profit for 24-25, excluding the automobile business, was 239/25.7 billion yuan. Using the segmented valuation method, with reference to Ideal, Xiaopeng, and NIO Auto, the bank gave the Xiaomi car business 1.7 x PS in 2024, with a corresponding market value of HK$25.7 billion. Referring to Apple and considering the historical PE situation of Xiaomi in the past, the bank gave Xiaomi a market value of HK$521.5 billion, and a comprehensive discount rate of 10% for the Group's valuation, corresponding to a reasonable market value of HK$492.5 billion in 2024. The first coverage gave it a “buy” rating.