Hot news
2024 US stock outlook: from 6,000 points to 3,000 points, Wall Street differences are unprecedented!
Investment bank analysts had mixed views on the US stock market in 2024. Some were optimistic, while others were pessimistic. Ed Yardeni, president of Yardeni Research, predicts that by the end of 2025, the S&P 500 index will reach a new height and may soar to 6,000 points; J.P. Morgan believes that as global economic growth slows, household savings shrink, and geopolitical risks remain high, the S&P 500 index will drop to 4,200 points by the end of 2024. Mike Wilson, the bank's bear analyst, still believes that the US economy will experience a recession at the end of 2024, and the S&P 500 index may hit 3,000 points.
Interest rate cuts are expected to spawn new arbitrage opportunities! The Federal Reserve may not extend the term of financing instruments during the Bank of Silicon Valley crisis
The Federal Reserve's policy research agency Wrightson ICAP believes that the gap between the Bank Term Financing Plan interest rate, BTFP for short, and the deposit reserve interest rate (IORB) paid to institutions by the Federal Reserve Bank in March is getting wider. This means that the Federal Reserve Officials may let BTFP expire in March next year and not renew it.
The US holiday season is not hot this year! Retail sales growth slowed significantly compared to the same period last year
According to preliminary data from Mastercard SpendingPulse, retail sales growth during the US holiday season this year was significantly less than the same period last year, and consumers are becoming picky and trying to find cost-effective and promotional products. From November 1 to December 24, retail sales excluding automobiles increased by 3.1% over the same period last year, significantly lower than the 7.6% increase in sales during the 2022 holiday season. Retail sales during the holiday season are an important barometer of the US economy, and the performance of such a heavy traditional sales season is worth watching.
At a time when US mortgage interest rates were at their peak, important housing price indices recorded the biggest increase in the year
Housing prices in the US have risen steadily since they bottomed out in January of this year due to a shortage of housing supply. According to data from Standard & Poor's Case Schiller, an important US housing price index, on Tuesday, the country's housing price increase further expanded in October. It has been rising for the ninth month in a row, and has set a new record. October comes at a time when interest rates on mortgage loans have been at their highest level for more than 20 years.
Crude oil soared during the holiday season when liquidity was sluggish! WTI rose nearly 3% at one point
On Tuesday evening, WTI crude oil continued to rise above 75 US dollars/barrel. At one point during the day, it rose nearly 3%. Brent crude oil returned to 80 US dollars/barrel, rising more than 2% during the day. According to market analysts, this is supported by geopolitical tension in the Middle East and investors' optimism that the Federal Reserve will soon begin to cut interest rates, boosting global economic growth and fuel demand.
Resumption of US stock trading
S&P and NASDAQ hit high positions in the new year, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index recorded a record high
US stocks opened high and closed higher. The three major indices collectively closed higher. The Dow Jones index rose 0.43%, just over 10 points from its highest historical closing price recorded on December 19; the S&P 500 index rose 0.42%, and the Nasdaq Composite Index rose 0.54%, both of which hit the highest level since February last year.
Additionally, the Nasdaq 100 Index, which is dominated by technology stocks, closed up 0.6%, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose 1.81%, both of which hit record highs.
Major technology stocks had mixed ups and downs. Apple fell 0.28%, Microsoft rose 0.02%, Google C rose 0.07%, Amazon 0.01%, Nvidia rose 0.92%, Meta rose 0.41%, and Tesla rose 1.61%. The 30 branches of the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index collectively closed higher, while Wolfspeed and Intel rose more than 5%.
Most popular Chinese securities closed up, with NIO up 10.81%, NetEase up 5.21%, Ideal Auto 3.77%, Xiaopeng Auto 1.59%, Tencent Music 1.29%, and Alibaba up 0.76%.
Israel welcomes the largest foreign investment in history! Intel to build $25 billion chip factory
On Tuesday, Israel's Ministry of Finance, Ministry of Economy, and Tax Administration issued a joint statement approving US Intel's investment of 25 billion US dollars to build a new chip factory in Israel. This is the largest foreign company investment in Israel's history. By the close,$Intel (INTC.US)$An increase of more than 5%.
Apple files appeal against Apple Watch import ban
White House refuses to overturn$Apple (AAPL.US)$A ban on the sale of smartwatches in the US. Apple said it has appealed the import ban. Apple asked the US Court of Appeals to suspend the ban until US Customs decides on January 12 whether Apple's redesigned watch evades Masimo's patent.
It's not just about selling modern! Amazon will fully enter online car sales next year
According to media reports,$Amazon (AMZN.US)$Hyundai Motor Company recently announced that the two sides have reached an agreement to launch an online car sales service to start selling Hyundai cars on the Amazon website next year. Amazon expects that by the end of 2024, more and more car companies will start selling cars through the company channel.
NIO's US stock surged nearly 11%, and the new flagship ET9 was officially unveiled
$NIO Inc (NIO.US)$US stocks surged nearly 11%. The company held NIO Day 2023 in Xi'an and officially unveiled its new flagship vehicle, the ET9, designed specifically for the high-end market. According to the company, ET9 has already started pre-orders in China, and delivery is expected to begin in the first quarter of 2025. Most of the technology used in NIO's new cars is internally designed.
Bristol-Myers Squibb to acquire RayzeBio for approximately US$4.1 billion
$Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY.US)$Said it will be acquired for around $4.1 billion$RayzeBio (RYZB.US)$to strengthen its anti-cancer drug business. The latter surged more than doubled overnight.
Top 20 US stock turnover
Hong Kong Market Outlook
Beishui raised more than HK$300 million from China Mobile and sold Tencent Holdings for nearly HK$2.7 billion
On December 22 (Friday), Southbound Capital sold Hong Kong stocks at a net sale of HK$4.277 billion.
$CHINA MOBILE (00941.HK)$,$CNOOC (00883.HK)$,$KINGDEE INT'L (00268.HK)$received net purchases of HK$331 million, HK$120 million and HK$59.79 million respectively;
$TENCENT (00700.HK)$,$TRACKER FUND OF HONG KONG (02800.HK)$,$CSOP Hang Seng TECH Index ETF (03033.HK)$Net sales were HK$2,677 million, HK$726 million and HK$418 million, respectively.
Goldman Sachs Emerging Markets Insight Fund position adjustment estimate: Significantly increasing Ali and Ideal holdings, reducing NetEase holdings, and Tencent rising to the top position
According to data analysis, the media found that Goldman Sachs Emerging Markets Insight Fund clearly adjusted the positions of some heavily held Chinese securities. For the three months ending at the end of October, the fund's$Alibaba (BABA.US)$Shareholding increased by 65%,$Li Auto (LI.US)$Shareholding increased nearly 30 times,$Yunnan Baiyao Group (000538.SZ)$Shareholding increased more than 9 times; TSMC's shareholding decreased by 22%, and the market value fell to the second largest stock.$NetEase (NTES.US)$The holdings were reduced by 76%. In addition, the one that increased its holdings by 1153,000 shares to 2.21 million shares$TENCENT (00700.HK)$With a market capitalization of $81.9 million, the ranking rose from second to first.
Today's attention
Keywords: annual profit margins of industrial enterprises above the scale of China, summary of opinions of members of the Bank of Japan monetary policy meeting
On Wednesday, in terms of economic data, investors can focus on the annual profit margins of industrial enterprises above the size of China.
In terms of financial events, the Bank of Japan announced a summary of the opinions of the reviewers of the December monetary policy meeting. At this meeting, the Bank of Japan kept its policy unchanged and refuted claims that austerity would begin soon. Kazuo Ueda stressed that they will not be in a hurry to take any action and will generally take prudent measures, which crushed the Japanese yen bullish hopes. Investors will want to get more clear information from the summary of opinions, specifically whether all Bank of Japan officials hold this view, or whether some of them prefer to tighten their policies next year.
Futubull Morning Reading:
The rising sun isn't a rooster's wake-up call.
— Peter Lynch
Editor/Somer