On the second day without going north, it was another day for A-shares to lie flat, even falling below 2,900 points.

As the market temperature dropped to a freezing point, new changes in capital began.

! 1

Underfunded, Hong Kong Stock ETF?

The performance of A-shares on December 25 was lackluster, but there was a very interesting scene in the ETF market. Many medium and Hang Seng Technology-themed ETFs showed the highest gains.

Huaan Fund's Hang Seng Internet ETF, Harvest Fund's Central Internet ETF, Hong Kong Technology 50 ETF, and E-Fangda Fund's China Internet ETF increased 2.05%, 1.85%, 1.74%, and 1.65% respectively.

(The content of this article is a list of objective data and information and does not constitute any investment advice)

If it goes up, it goes up, what's strange?

The strangest point is that last Friday, the NASDAQ China Golden Dragon Index fell 2.16%, NetEase fell nearly 16%, and Bilibili fell nearly 5%. The main constituent stocks clearly fell, but the three CCI-themed ETFs rose on Monday.

Also, Hong Kong stock ETFs also rose on Monday. However, due to the Christmas holidays, Hong Kong and US stocks were closed on Monday. The rise at this point indicates that mainland capital is beginning to fall to the bottom and the Hong Kong stock market is opening up and rebounding.

Because generally speaking, in addition to the rise and fall of constituent stocks, the trend of Chinese ETFs is also related to the trend of Hong Kong A shares and exchange rates on the same day. At the same time, in-market ETFs are also affected by the supply and demand relationship in the market. If there are more purchases than sales, the Chinese ETF will rise.

Therefore, we can see that yesterday's mid-term and Hong Kong stock ETFs all showed significant premiums. Among them, E-Fangda Fund's Internet ETF premium rate was as high as 4.64%.

So I have to ask, what's the logic behind the rebound?

After an opinion draft on the new online game regulations was released last Friday, an insider from the Game Industry Committee of the China Audio and Digital Association said that it is currently a draft for comments, indicating that all sectors can speak freely at this stage to make it practical and more complete.

Just one day later, the relevant person in charge of the State Press and Publication Administration responded,The original purpose of the draft for solicitation of comments was to promote the prosperity and healthy development of the game industry, not to suppress it. Articles 17, 18, and other content in response to market concerns, or adaptable revisions.

Early trading on Monday saw the number of newly approved domestic online game versions surpass 100 for the first time in December, continuing to send a positive signal supporting the prosperity and healthy development of the online game industry.

However, it is difficult to explain the rise in Chinese ETFs and Hang Seng Internet ETFs simply because of the marginal slowdown in new game regulations. Because A-share game stocks are still falling, gaming ETFs have also fallen by more than 4%.

Leaving aside the impact of last Friday's surprise game opinion paper, Hong Kong stocks have been gradually recovering since falling below the 16,000 mark on December 11. The Hang Seng Index once climbed to 16,857 points on Friday. Despite the “black swan” takeoff, the Hang Seng Index closed at 16,300 points.

Facing a major inflection point in the liquidity of the US dollar, Hong Kong stocks in the offshore market, which are clearly limited by the “dollar shortage,” actually have more momentum to rebound. This is also one of the main trading lines of the market.

On December 13, the famous novelist Zijin Chen directly funded the bottom of Hong Kong stocks. One-third of his positions were in Hong Kong stocks and Hong Kong stock ETFs.

In addition, a number of A-share listed game companies such as 37 Entertainment, Perfect World, and Giant Network announced the repurchase of shares, as well as reports that NetEase and Blizzard “merged” after a year and that the national service version of “World of Warcraft” will return. These positive news are all expected to boost sector confidence.

Currently, there are 6 main indices listed in Hong Kong and overseas with the theme of Chinese Internet companies. Among them, there are three indices known as the “China Internet Overview”, namely the China Securities Overseas China Internet 50 Index, the China Securities Overseas China Internet 30 Index, and the Global Chinese Internet RMB.

The constituent stocks of these three indices are basically the same. The difference is the calculation rules of the weight factor and the maximum weight limit for individual shares, especially the maximum weight limit for individual shares.

However, judging from market trends, the Chinese Internet 30 generally performed better than the other two indices.

2

Capital increased efforts to copy A-shares last week

In addition to Chinese securities and Hong Kong stocks, there was also an obvious sign that funds were used to bottom A-shares through ETFs last week.

Last week, equity ETF net purchases amounted to 38.145 billion yuan. Over 90% of capital went into broad-based ETFs, with a net inflow of 34.1 billion yuan. Among them, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 ETF had the most net subscriptions, at 17.356 billion yuan.

The share of Huatai Berry Fund's Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 ETF surged by 3,048 billion shares last week, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 ETF eFangda increased by 1,994 million shares during the same period, and Harvest Fund's Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 ETF increased by 856 million shares, a total increase of 5.898 billion shares.

Another broad-market blue-chip index, the Shanghai Composite 50 Index, continues to be favored by capital. Huaxia Fund's share of the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 ETF increased by 2.02 billion shares last week, and the share of the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 ETF Yifangda increased by 1,223 billion shares over the same period, for a total increase of 3,243 billion shares.

Capital “covered the A-share index” last week, and the share of Wells Fargo Fund Shanghai Composite Index ETF increased by 900 million shares last week.

Looking back at today's A-share performance, A-shares fell below 2,900 points. The turnover of the two markets was only 609.9 billion yuan, and more than 4,000 stocks fell, indicating that market sentiment was extremely cold.

Huaxi Securities believes that A-shares are currently at the bottom of the medium- to long-term range. Investors tend to price medium- to long-term problems in the short term. Market risk appetite still needs to be fixed, and they are waiting for an upward breakthrough in the “bottom”.

China Merchants Securities pointed out that many physical economic indicators have recently been corrected, indicating that the economy is improving. From a rational and medium- to long-term perspective, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 is ushering in the twinkling of dawn.

3

At the end of the year, there was a “money panic”, and the cargo base returned to 5%

This past week, the market returned 5% of monetary funds!

The IMF's 7-day annualized yield increased sharply by 1%-3% compared to a week ago. Among them, Everbright Cash Bank B's 7-day annualized yield returned to 5%.

It is worth mentioning that the treasury bond reverse repurchase market has also seen repurchase interest rates rise above 100% since last week. Interest rates on 3-day treasury bonds on the Shanghai and Shenzhen exchanges rose more than 100%, and at one point rose above 5.4%. GC003 rose 101.66% to 5.060%; R-003 rose 100.57% to 5.255%.

The sharp rise in currency yields and reverse repurchase interest rates on treasury bonds reflects the tight financial situation in the year-end market. At the end of each month or year, banks and institutions face demand for capital payment, settlement, and assessment, leading to an imbalance between the supply and demand of capital in the market, and an increase in interest rates.

Recently, the central bank continued to increase its 14-day reverse repurchase investment. Today, the open market invested a net investment of 349 billion yuan, sending a positive signal to care for New Year's Eve funding.

As 2024 approaches, market expectations for a new round of interest rate cuts are heating up. Experts expect MLF, open market operating interest rates, and LPR to be lowered at the beginning of next year.