According to a research report released by Galaxy Securities, in 2024, domestic new energy consumption promotion and solar storage prices are strong, while the US mainly benefits from policy subsidies and interest rate cuts. Global demand for energy storage will still be dominated by China and the US, and the energy storage industry will still have the fastest compound growth rate in the next few years in the ITU sub-industry.
The Zhitong Finance app learned that Galaxy Securities released a research report saying that in 2024, domestic new energy consumption promotion and photovoltaic storage prices were strong, while the US mainly benefited from a cycle of policy subsidies and interest rate cuts. Global energy storage demand will still be dominated by China and the US, and the energy storage industry will still have the fastest compound growth rate in the next few years in the ITIC sub-industry. Compared to other links in the industry chain, the inverter sector has the strongest profitability. It is recommended to focus on Deye Co., Ltd. (605117.SH), Shangneng Electric (300827.SZ), Goodway (688390.SH), and Hemai shares (); the battery chain, which is closely tied to Tesla, and its related supply chains have fully benefited; the integrator link focuses on Sunshine Power (300274.SZ), which has channels and brand advantages in highly profitable overseas markets. 688032.SH
Incident: On December 22, Tesla announced the official launch of the first overseas energy storage gigafactory project. It initially plans 40 GWh of commercial energy storage battery production capacity, and plans to start production in Q2 2024. November inverter export data was released, and exports in the second half of the year were positive for the first time on a month-on-month basis.
The views of China Galaxy Securities are as follows:
The domestic energy storage industry chain will directly benefit.
According to SMM statistics, 2023H1 Tesla topped the global energy storage system shipment ranking; the three-quarter report shows that the company's Q1-Q3 energy storage system shipped 11.5 GWh, nearly double that of the full year of last year, with business revenue of 1.6 billion US dollars +40%, and gross profit margin of 24% +15 pcts. It is expected to maintain a high growth trend in the future. Referring to the experience of the first Shanghai gigafactory, the strong domestic industrial advantages plus the technical advantages of the Tesla brand achieved great success, which led to a high increase in domestic sales and exports of new energy vehicles, with a supply chain localization rate of over 95%. The launch of energy storage plants and the global release of products will drive an increase in domestic demand for energy storage batteries, materials, components, etc., and the benefits of Tesla supply chain companies will increase with increasing certainty.
Megapack will still target overseas markets.
The Megapack energy storage system that the plant plans to produce is for the US, Australia and other markets. The official website shows that the price of the 4.9 MW/19.6 MWh product in California is 8.345 million US dollars, equivalent to 3.1 yuan/Wh, which is far higher than the current average bidding price for energy storage systems in China. Considering that the profit situation of large domestic reserves is not yet impressive, and based on Tesla's global market position and profit situation, the bank believes that the probability of Megapack entering the domestic market is unlikely, while the domestic industry's oversupply and the intensification of the price war will not change much in the short term. In the future, high domestic growth and high competition will coexist. Follow up on the situation of second-tier and third-tier production capacity clearance and the timing of price stabilization and reversal.
Inverter export data improved month-on-month.
According to the General Administration of Customs, in November, China's inverter exports in a single month amounted to 4.02 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 46% and an increase of 1%; the export volume was 3.8 million units, a decrease of 30%, an increase of 22%, and 23H2 was corrected for the first time. The reason for this was the positive export performance of South America, Africa, and Asia.
The valuation is still low, and the left-hand layout has a high margin of safety.
Benefiting from improved high-frequency data and the release of favorable technical information, the solar energy storage sector experienced a strong rebound on the 21st and 22nd. The daily gains of the CITIC Solar Index/Wande Energy Storage Index/Inverter Index were 3.9%/1.0%, 1.7%/2.9%, and 4.9%/3.2%, respectively. After an excessive decline adjustment in 2023, the bank believes that the market's expectations of the industry's overcapacity and declining profit have been fully reflected. Currently, the solar/energy storage/inverter index PE is 10.6/18.5/18.1 times, respectively, and the 10-year quantile is only 0.2%/0.0%/3.5%. The margin of safety is high, and the cost performance ratio is already reflected, so an appropriate left-hand layout is appropriate.
Risk warning: the risk that the policy falls short of expectations; the risk that the energy storage market will grow less than expected; the risk that prices will decline due to increased competition; and policy risks brought about by the deterioration of the overseas trade environment.