David Iben put it well when he said, 'Volatility is not a risk we care about. What we care about is avoiding the permanent loss of capital.' So it might be obvious that you need to consider debt, when you think about how risky any given stock is, because too much debt can sink a company. As with many other companies WEILONG GRAPE WINE CO., Ltd (SHSE:603779) makes use of debt. But is this debt a concern to shareholders?
What Risk Does Debt Bring?
Debt and other liabilities become risky for a business when it cannot easily fulfill those obligations, either with free cash flow or by raising capital at an attractive price. If things get really bad, the lenders can take control of the business. However, a more common (but still painful) scenario is that it has to raise new equity capital at a low price, thus permanently diluting shareholders. Having said that, the most common situation is where a company manages its debt reasonably well - and to its own advantage. When we examine debt levels, we first consider both cash and debt levels, together.
View our latest analysis for WEILONG GRAPE WINE
What Is WEILONG GRAPE WINE's Debt?
You can click the graphic below for the historical numbers, but it shows that WEILONG GRAPE WINE had CN¥211.2m of debt in September 2023, down from CN¥304.6m, one year before. However, it also had CN¥24.6m in cash, and so its net debt is CN¥186.6m.
A Look At WEILONG GRAPE WINE's Liabilities
Zooming in on the latest balance sheet data, we can see that WEILONG GRAPE WINE had liabilities of CN¥457.3m due within 12 months and liabilities of CN¥154.1m due beyond that. On the other hand, it had cash of CN¥24.6m and CN¥71.3m worth of receivables due within a year. So its liabilities total CN¥515.5m more than the combination of its cash and short-term receivables.
Given WEILONG GRAPE WINE has a market capitalization of CN¥3.91b, it's hard to believe these liabilities pose much threat. But there are sufficient liabilities that we would certainly recommend shareholders continue to monitor the balance sheet, going forward.
We use two main ratios to inform us about debt levels relative to earnings. The first is net debt divided by earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), while the second is how many times its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) covers its interest expense (or its interest cover, for short). The advantage of this approach is that we take into account both the absolute quantum of debt (with net debt to EBITDA) and the actual interest expenses associated with that debt (with its interest cover ratio).
While we wouldn't worry about WEILONG GRAPE WINE's net debt to EBITDA ratio of 3.7, we think its super-low interest cover of 0.66 times is a sign of high leverage. In large part that's due to the company's significant depreciation and amortisation charges, which arguably mean its EBITDA is a very generous measure of earnings, and its debt may be more of a burden than it first appears. So shareholders should probably be aware that interest expenses appear to have really impacted the business lately. However, the silver lining was that WEILONG GRAPE WINE achieved a positive EBIT of CN¥14m in the last twelve months, an improvement on the prior year's loss. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But you can't view debt in total isolation; since WEILONG GRAPE WINE will need earnings to service that debt. So when considering debt, it's definitely worth looking at the earnings trend. Click here for an interactive snapshot.
But our final consideration is also important, because a company cannot pay debt with paper profits; it needs cold hard cash. So it is important to check how much of its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) converts to actual free cash flow. Happily for any shareholders, WEILONG GRAPE WINE actually produced more free cash flow than EBIT over the last year. There's nothing better than incoming cash when it comes to staying in your lenders' good graces.
Our View
Based on what we've seen WEILONG GRAPE WINE is not finding it easy, given its interest cover, but the other factors we considered give us cause to be optimistic. In particular, we are dazzled with its conversion of EBIT to free cash flow. Considering this range of data points, we think WEILONG GRAPE WINE is in a good position to manage its debt levels. But a word of caution: we think debt levels are high enough to justify ongoing monitoring. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. For example WEILONG GRAPE WINE has 2 warning signs (and 1 which can't be ignored) we think you should know about.
If, after all that, you're more interested in a fast growing company with a rock-solid balance sheet, then check out our list of net cash growth stocks without delay.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.