债券承销表现亮眼，股权业务下滑。2023 年前三季度公司投行业务收入3.3 亿元，同比-35.8%。股权业务承销规模同比-80.7%，债券业务承销规模同比+34.1%。[Event] Galaxy of China announced results for the first three quarters of 2023: the company achieved operating income of 25.48 billion yuan, -6.6% year-on-year; net profit of 6.60 billion yuan, +2.5% year-on-year; corresponding to EPS of 0.15 yuan and ROE of 6.7%.
The third quarter achieved revenue of 8.07 billion yuan, -11.0% year-on-year and -7.4% month-on-month. Net profit of the mother was 1.66 billion yuan, -21.3% year-on-year and -38.1% month-on-month.
Market trading volume declined, and brokerage business declined slightly. The company's brokerage business revenue for the first three quarters of 2023 was 4.20 billion yuan, -15.1% year-on-year, accounting for 16.5% of operating income. Brokerage revenue for the third quarter was 1.32 billion yuan, -20.3% year-on-year. In the first three quarters, the average daily stock base trading volume of the entire market was 973.9 billion yuan, -5.2% year-on-year; the balance of the two loans in the entire market was 15909 billion yuan, +3.4% over the beginning of the year.
The bond underwriting performance was impressive, and the equity business declined. In the first three quarters of 2023, the company's investment banking business revenue was 330 million yuan, a year-on-year ratio of -35.8%. The underwriting scale of equity business is -80.7% year on year, and the underwriting scale of bond business is +34.1% year on year.
The shareholder underwriting scale was 1.77 billion yuan, ranking 44th, and refinancing the four companies. The main underwriting scale of bonds was 267.9 billion yuan, ranking 12th; of these, the underwriting scale of local government bonds, financial bonds, and corporate bonds was 137.2 billion yuan, 83.7 billion yuan, and 19.6 billion yuan respectively. There are 2 IPO reserve projects, ranking 32nd, including 1 in the main board of the two markets and 1 in the GEM.
The scale of asset management declined slightly, and the share of active management increased. The company's asset management revenue for the first three quarters of 2023 was 340 million yuan, -1.0% year on year; asset management business revenue for the third quarter was 120 million yuan, +12.7% year on year. As of the first half of 2023, the asset management scale was 110.8 billion yuan, -8.3% year-on-year. Among them: the scale of pooled asset management products is RMB 45.065 billion, the scale of single asset management products is RMB 63.229 billion, and the scale of special asset management products is RMB 2,551 billion.
The scale of self-employment increased sharply, and investment income declined year-on-year in a single quarter. Investment income (including fair value) was 5.83 billion yuan, +19.7% year on year; investment income for the third quarter (including fair value) was 1.17 billion yuan, -20.6% year on year. The scale of the company's self-operated assets grew rapidly in the first half of 2023, up 16% from the beginning of the year to 351.3 billion yuan.
Investment advice: We expect the company's 2023-25E EPS to be 0.77/0.89/0.95 yuan and BVPS to be 8.77/9.31/9.04 yuan respectively. We gave it 1.5-1.6x P/B for 2023, corresponding to the reasonable value range of 13.16-14.04 yuan, maintaining the “superior to the market” rating.
Risk warning: Trading volume continues to decline, and investment returns continue to decline due to increased volatility in the equity market.
