Hot news

• Fed officials relays “throw cold water” on expectations of interest rate cuts: the market is a bit ahead of schedule!

At the beginning of a new week, three more Fed officials came forward and said that the market was “ahead of schedule” to cut interest rates next year, and there was some confusion about the market reaction. The 2023 vote commissioner Goulsby said that the current rate cut in the market exceeds the Fed's quarterly economic forecast. The 2024 vote commissioner Mester also refuted expectations from the outside world, that is, since the Federal Reserve is more confident of raising the benchmark interest rate to a limit level sufficient to control inflation, then it will suddenly shift to reducing borrowing costs. Next year's FOMC voting committee member Daley said on the same day that it would be appropriate for the FOMC to cut interest rates in 2024, but it is still too early to speculate when interest rate cuts will occur.

• Adding fuel to expectations of a “soft landing”! CBO predicts inflation will be close to the Fed's 2% target next year

The US Congressional Budget Office (CBO) predicts that the US inflation rate will be close to the 2% target set by the Federal Reserve next year without a recession or a sharp rise in unemployment, so a soft landing is expected to be achieved.

• U.S. oil once surged 4%, and more oil companies and tanker owners are avoiding the Red Sea

Following Maersk and four other international shipping giants, British Petroleum, BP, and Norway's Equinor, another European oil and gas giant, also announced on Monday that all transportation through the Red Sea will be suspended. WTI oil prices once rose by 4%, breaking through 74 US dollars/barrel, hitting a two-week high. However, at the close of the market, oil prices recovered most of their gains, indicating that in a bleak macro context, the effect of geopolitics in boosting oil prices was limited.

• The Federal Reserve is turning, and the US dollar has a “net short position” for the first time in three months. Goldman Sachs expects the US dollar to “fall again”

Goldman Sachs joined the “bearish dollar” chorus after the Federal Reserve gave the clearest signal to cut interest rates to date. Goldman Sachs expects$USD (USDindex.FX)$It will fall by more than 3% in the next 12 months, and the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates five times next year. Furthermore, according to data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, prior to the meeting, hedge funds and other large speculators switched to net short positions on the US dollar for the first time since September.

Company news

• The three major indices collectively closed higher, the Dow reached another record high, and the NASDAQ and S&P 500 hit new highs during the year

On Monday EST, the three major indices collectively closed higher, and the Dow rose for eight consecutive trading days. Since last Wednesday, it has reached new record highs for four consecutive trading days. Furthermore,$S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)$There is only a 1.2% gap from the historic closing high set in January 2022.

Most major technology stocks rose. Meta and Amazon closed up nearly 3%, all hitting new highs during the year. Nvidia rose more than 2%, and Tesla and Apple closed down slightly.

Most popular securities in China fell. JD and Ideal Auto fell nearly 3%, Alibaba and Xiaopeng Motors fell by about 1%, NIO by more than 4%, and New Oriental by more than 5%.

• In the big sales season, Apple had an unprecedented lead: the latest smartwatch was discontinued in the US

After the US International Trade Commission (ITC) ruled,$Apple (AAPL.US)$Sales of the latest versions of its smartwatch Apple Watch Series 9 and Ultra 2 models will stop in the US this month. Apple is being asked to stop selling its core products in the US, which is unprecedented, especially considering that it is currently the most important holiday sales season. This is related to Apple Watch's blood oxygen sensor patent dispute. By the close, Apple was down nearly 1%.

• The $20 billion purchase of the foetus died in the womb! Adobe abandons marriage Figma due to regulatory pressure

Because of regulatory roadblocks, software giants$Adobe (ADBE.US)$The final decision was made to abandon the acquisition of European user interface (UI) tool Unicorn Figma. The above statement means that Adobe's $20 billion cash-combined stock acquisition of Figma is in the dead, and it is also the “miscarriage” of one of the largest private software manufacturer deals in history. For this, Adboe will pay Figma a $1 billion reverse break-up fee.

• US Steel surged more than 26%, and Nippon Steel will buy it

Nippon Steel and$United States Steel (X.US)$It was jointly announced that the leading Japanese steel company will make a cash-only acquisition of US Steel at a price of 55 US dollars/share. According to US Steel, the price of 55 US dollars corresponds to the equity value of 14.1 billion US dollars. After adding the debt assumed, the corporate value corresponding to this acquisition will reach 14.9 billion US dollars, equivalent to more than 2.1 trillion yen. Boosted by this, US Steel closed up 26.09% on Monday.

• $2.2 billion! NIO receives a new round of strategic investment from CYVN in Abu Dhabi

$NIO Inc (NIO.US)$The announcement stated that a share subscription agreement has been signed with CYVN Holdings through its affiliate CYVN, a professional investment institution headquartered in Abu Dhabi that focuses on investing in the field of advanced and intelligent mobility. According to the share subscription agreement, CYVN will invest a total of US$2.2 billion in cash to subscribe for 294 million shares of the company's newly issued Class A common stock at a purchase price of US$750 per share. After the transaction is completed, CYVN will profitably hold approximately 20.1% of NIO's total issued and issued foreign shares. By the close, NIO had risen more than 4%.

Top 20 US stock turnover

Hong Kong Market Outlook

• Beishui bought a large amount of Hong Kong stock ETFs and sold COSCO Marine Control for more than HK$300 million

On December 18 (Monday), South Capital's net purchase of Hong Kong stocks was HK$11.75 billion today.

$TRACKER FUND OF HONG KONG (02800.HK)$,$Hang Seng H-Share Index ETF (02828.HK)$,$CSOP Hang Seng TECH Index ETF (03033.HK)$received net purchases of HK$8.103 billion, HK$1,688 million and HK$1,337 million respectively;

$COSCO SHIP HOLD (01919.HK)$,$XPENG-W (09868.HK)$,$CHINA MOBILE (00941.HK)$Net sales were HK$316 million, HK$146 million and HK$120 million, respectively.

Today's attention

Keywords: total annualization of new housing starts in the US in November, total number of US construction permits in November, interest rate decision announced by the Bank of Japan, Accenture/FedEx performance

On Tuesday, in terms of economic data, investors need to pay close attention to the total number of new housing starts in the US in November and the total number of construction permits in the US in November.

In terms of economic events, the Bank of Japan will hold an interest rate conference. As the last developed economy to announce interest rate decisions this year, Japan, which is at the critical point of the easing cycle, has attracted even more attention, and inflation, which has begun to pick up, has also put pressure on interest rates to shift.

In terms of financial reports,$Accenture (ACN.US)$Results will be announced before the US stock market.$FedEx (FDX.US)$The results will be announced after the market.

Niu Niu Chen read:

The most important thing is not what cards you touch, but whether you can play the cards in your hand well.

—Charlie Munger

Editor/Somer