The Nasdaq index continued to reach new highs in the past two years, and the Dow closed at a record high; Meta and Amazon reached record highs; Apple, which stopped selling new smartwatches, fell by more than 1%; the chip stock index ended seven consecutive gains; US Steel rose more than 26%; the China Securities Index fell two times in a row. New Oriental closed more than 5%, NIO rose more than 5%, while Ideal Auto fell nearly 3%.
Ten-year US Treasury yields reversed a four-day decline, did not continue to approach a four-month low, but failed to return to 4.0%. Before the Bank of Japan's decision, the yen continued to fall below its four-month high; the US dollar index rebounded slightly, and then declined in the intraday period.
Crude oil turned upward after falling more than 1% in the intraday period and rebounded to a two-week high. Gold rebounded, and futures were approaching a one-week high. Lun Nickel fell nearly 4%, and Lun Aluminum rose five times in a row.
Following last Friday's “top three” Williams and dovish official Bostic, Fed officials continued to throw cold water on expectations of interest rate cuts next spring.
On Monday, Cleveland Federal Reserve Chairman Meester said that she expects interest rates to be cut three times next year, believing that the market's expectations of early interest rate cuts next year are already ahead of the Fed; Chicago Fed Chairman Goulsby said that he was surprised by the market's response to expectations of interest rate cuts. The market's actions are a bit ahead of schedule. The market expects the Fed to quickly normalize the currency, but he doesn't think so. Moreover, he seemed to confirm Williams's statement that the Fed did not discuss interest rate cuts last week, saying that NIO's specific policies were not speculatively debated. Despite this, the major US stock indexes are still showing a tenacious upward trend after seven weeks of continuous gains.
US Treasury bonds, which had a sharp rebound in price last week, declined somewhat, and yields rebounded after falling sharply last week, reflecting the decline in the bond market carnival triggered by the Fed's release of dovish signals last Wednesday. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield did not continue to approach the four-month low set last Thursday. After breaking through 4.0% for the first time since August last Thursday, it still failed to recover the 4.0% mark.
The market expects the probability that the Fed will cut interest rates in March next year is lower than last Wednesday, but this is not enough to change the market's interest rate peak expectations
The dollar index, which rebounded on Friday, had weak gains and continued to be pressured by expectations that the Fed would cut interest rates. On Monday, some media learned that ECB policymakers do not expect to change their signal that high interest rates are needed until March next year, so it is difficult to cut interest rates until June. The rebound of the euro has put pressure on the dollar to weaken, but the euro has not yet come close to the monthly high created by the European Central Bank last Thursday in suppressing interest rate cuts and expectations of a sharp rise of more than 1% on that day, and the US dollar index is not close to the four-month low set last Thursday. Before the Bank of Japan announced its monetary policy decision on Tuesday, the yen continued to fall from the four-month high set last Thursday. Last week's news said that the Bank of Japan is unlikely to end its negative interest rate this month as soon as possible.
Among commodities, international crude oil rebounded strongly in the intraday period, with an increase of close to 4% at one point. Following Maersk and four other international shipping giants, British Petroleum, BP, and Norway's Equinor, another European oil and gas giant, also announced on Monday that all transportation through the Red Sea will be suspended. This means that the risk of spillover from the Arab-Israeli conflict intensified after the Houthis in Yemen frequently attacked commercial ships bound for the Red Sea in recent days, and it has already affected international shipping. Some analysts say there is a risk that the Suez Canal, the “main artery” of shipping, will close.
The NASDAQ stabilized in eight consecutive years, the Dow index stabilized, Meta, Amazon, Apple bucked the market, fell against the market, CPC, New Orient, and NIO surged
The three major US stock indexes collectively opened higher. The S&P 500 Index and the Nasdaq Composite Index maintained gains throughout the day. At midday trading, they rose more than 0.6% and 0.8%, respectively. The Dow Jones Industrial Average reached a new daily high after a short-term decline in early trading. It rose nearly 90 points during the day, rising more than 0.2%. It turned down in midday trading, then recovered most of its gains at the end of the session, and narrowly closed higher. In the end, none of the three major indices closed down.
The NASDAQ closed higher for eight consecutive trading days, with an increase of 0.61% to 14904.81 points. After hitting a new high since January 14 last year for three consecutive days, it hit a new high since January 12 last year. S&P, which closed down slightly on Friday, closed up 0.45% to 4740.56 points, breaking the closing high on January 4 last year, and about 1.2% different from the closing history high set on January 3 last year. The Dow closed up 0.86 points and basically settled at 37306.02 points, slightly higher than the closing history high set for the third day in a row last Friday. Gains were suspended after seven consecutive days of gains.
The small-cap stock index Russell, which is mainly value stocks, turned down in early trading in 2000 and closed down 0.14%, outperformed the market, and continued to fall from the closing high since April 20 last year, which was refreshed last Thursday. The Nasdaq 100 Index, which focuses on technology stocks, closed up 0.64%; the Nasdaq Technology Market Capitalization Weighted Index (NDXTMC), which measures the performance of technology constituent stocks in the Nasdaq 100 Index, closed up 0.81%, both breaking new closing record highs set last Friday and rising for two consecutive days.
Among the major S&P 500 sectors, only real estate, which fell close to 0.4%, and utilities, which fell 0.3%, closed down on Monday. Communications services where Meta is located rose nearly 1.9%, Costco's essential consumer goods, which rose more than 3%, rose nearly 1.1%, energy driven by higher crude oil and non-essential consumer goods from Amazon rose nearly 0.8%, and other sectors rose less than 0.2%.
Most of the leading technology stocks continued to rise, while Tesla, which had risen more than 1% in early trading, turned down in midday trading and closed down nearly 0.6%, then fell back after rising for three consecutive days to a high level since October 12. Among FAANMG's top six technology stocks, after Morgan Stanley sharply raised the target price by nearly 16% to $500, and after regaining confidence in the implementation of growth plans such as reporting on content spending and advertising, Netflix closed up nearly 3%, Facebook parent company Meta closed 2.9%, both rising 2.7%, reaching record highs for two consecutive days; Amazon closed 2.7%, reaching record highs for two consecutive days; and Google's parent company, Alphabet, closed 2.4%, rising from the high level since December 7; Microsoft closed 0.5%, continuing to break away from the low since November 9 last Thursday; Meanwhile, during the major sales season, Apple, which stopped selling the latest smartwatch in the US due to a patent dispute, fell more than 1% in early trading, closing down nearly 0.9%, and continued to fall from the closing record high set last Thursday.
Chip stocks declined after seven days of continuous growth. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index and the semiconductor industry ETF SOXX closed down about 0.3%, falling to a record high set for three consecutive days. Among individual stocks, at the close, Arm fell about 3%, Intel and Qualcomm fell about 1%, Applied Materials fell nearly 1%, AMD fell nearly 0.2%, while Nvidia rose more than 2%. Broadcom, which surged nearly 20% last week, rose more than 1%, and Micron Technology rose nearly 0.2%.
Including Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta, Nvidia, Tesla, and Amazon, the seven major technology stocks rose overall on the fourth day in the last five trading days, reaching record highs.
The performance of AI concept stocks varied. At the close, C3.ai (AI) fell 2%, BigBear.ai (BBAI) fell by more than 7%, (SOUN) fell 1.8%, and Palantir (PLTR) rose less than 1%. However, after announcing the termination of the $20 billion acquisition plan for the UI design unicorn Figma due to regulatory pressure, Adobe (ADBE) rose nearly 2.5%. Some analysts believe that Adobe's situation after investing in generative AI is significantly stronger than when it announced the acquisition plan last year, and abandoning the acquisition can free up capital to buy back stocks. SoundHound.ai
Most of the popular stock markets declined. The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index (HXC) closed down more than 0.9%, falling for two days and continuing to fall from the high since December 1 set by four consecutive days of gains last Thursday. The Chinese general ETFs KWEB and CQQQ closed down 1.6% and 1.3%, respectively. The performance of the three new car builders was mixed. Following nearly 740 million US dollars in July and receiving an additional equity investment of 2.2 billion US dollars from Abu Dhabi's sovereign fund CYVN, NIO Auto closed up more than 4%, while Ideal Auto closed down nearly 3%, and Xiaopeng Motor closed down nearly 0.5%. Among other individual stocks, by the close, Station B had fallen by more than 4%, JD had fallen by more than 2%, Baidu and Tencent had lost more than 1%, Alibaba had fallen 0.9%, while Pinduoduo and NetEase had slightly risen. After Dongfang's “short essay” storm came to an end, and Dong Yuhui was appointed as the cultural assistant to the chairman of New Oriental and also served as the vice president of New Oriental Cultural Tourism Group, New Oriental US stocks initially rose about 10% and closed up 5.7%.
Among the more volatile individual stocks, after Nippon Steel plans to buy them at a premium of 40%, US Steel (X) maintained an increase of more than 20% throughout the day, rising 27.6% in the intraday period and closing about 26.1%; after postponing the release of the third quarter report scheduled for Monday and warning that a potential default might affect the company's ability to continue to operate, the photovoltaic stock SunPower (SPWR) fell more than 40% in early trading, the biggest intraday decline since listing, and closed down 31.3%; despite indicating that its diet pills can reduce weight and blood sugar, biopharmaceutical company Structure Therapeutics (GPCR) still closed down 42.8%; clothing company VF Corporation (VFC) closed down 7.7% after disclosing that a cybersecurity incident occurred on December 13 and was expected to have a significant impact on the business; “South Korea's Amazon” Coupang (CPNG) closed 5% after announcing plans to acquire and privatize the luxury e-commerce platform Farfetch.
In terms of European stocks, following ECB President Lagarde last Thursday, more ECB officials spoke out against market expectations that the ECB would cut interest rates as early as next spring. The governor of the Bank of Slovenia, Peter Kazimir, said that it is still too early to discuss any interest rate cuts. Another ECB official, Bostjan Vasle, said that the central bank needs at least through spring before it can re-evaluate its policy prospects. The Pan-European stock index closed down for the first time in the last three trading days.
The European Stoxx 600 Index, which almost settled on Friday, fell to a new closing high since February 2 last year, for two consecutive days. Most of the stock indexes of major European countries fell. German stocks, which had basically settled on Friday, French stocks, and Italian stocks, which had been rising for two days, all declined. The Spanish stock index fell for two days in a row, while British stocks, which fell on Friday, rebounded.
Among all sectors, oil and gas, driven by a rebound in crude oil, closed 1.1%, bucked the market, and strengthened the stock indexes of the UK, where the listing was located, such as energy giant BP, stood out among European countries. However, after the German government decided to end subsidies for new electric vehicle buyers, domestic automobile giants BMW and Mercedes-Benz both fell by more than 1%, dragging the automobile sector down nearly 1.2%. Among other individual stocks, Maersk, which announced the suspension of container traffic in the Red Sea on Friday, rose 3.1%, and Italian shipping company D'Amico rose 5.6%.
German bonds stopped rising five times in a row, ten-year US bond yields reversed four consecutive declines and did not continue to approach a four-month low
ECB officials also cracked down on expectations of interest rate cuts. Prices of European treasury bonds, which have been rising for several days, have declined, German treasury bonds have stopped rising for five days, and yields have rebounded. By the end of the bond market, the yield on UK 10-year benchmark treasury bonds closed at 3.69%, up 1 basis point during the day, and was downgraded 3.63% in the intraday period on Monday, hitting a seven-month low for three consecutive days; the 2-year yield closed 4.27%, rising 3 basis points during the day; the benchmark 10-year German treasury bond yield closed 2.08%, rising 6 basis points during the day, breaking away from falling 2.01% in the intraday period last Friday and refreshing for almost nine months; 2-year German bond yields closed 2.54%, rising 5 consecutive days, ending 5 consecutive days of base point gains, ending 5 consecutive days of fresh basis points The momentum has been low for more than eight months.
The yield on US 10-year benchmark treasury bonds fell below 3.89% in the European stock market, extremely close to the low since July 27, which was refreshed last Thursday. It fell by more than 2 basis points during the day, and has continued to rise since then. It has stabilized above 3.90% before the opening of the market. US stocks were close to 3.97% in early trading to a new daily high, rebounding about 8 quarters from a daily low of about 3.93% at the end of the day. It rose by about 2 basis points during the day, and rebounded after four consecutive days of decline.
The yield on 2-year US Treasury bonds, which are more sensitive to interest rate prospects, fell by 4.41% in early trading in European stocks and hit a new daily low. It fell nearly 4 basis points during the day. It rose 4.45% in early trading, and rose above 4.46% in midday trading to a new daily high. It continued to stay away from the half-year low of breaking 4.28% last Thursday and being refreshed for two consecutive days. It was about 4.45% at the end of the day, rising about 1 basis point during the day, for two consecutive trading days.
The US dollar index rebounded and declined in the micro-market, and the yen continued to fall below a four-month high before the Central Bank of Japan's decision
The ICE US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks a basket of exchange rates between the US dollar and six major currencies including the euro, rose above 122.60 at the beginning of the Asian market and hit a new daily high. After turning down in early Asian trading, European stocks remained in decline for most of the time. European stocks fell below 102.40 in the pre-market to a new low of 102.377, and fell nearly 0.2% during the day. It was not close to falling below the 101.80 level since August 4 last Thursday. European stocks rose more than once in the early trading session. After turning up in early trading, US stocks rose above 102.60 and close to a high of around 102.60 in midday trading. Rise.
By the time the US stock market closed on Monday, the US dollar index was above 102.50, falling slightly during the day, and was generally at the same level as last Friday; the Bloomberg dollar spot index, which tracks the exchange rate of the US dollar against ten other currencies, rose slightly during the day and was also generally at the same level as last Friday. Both the US dollar index and the US dollar index stopped falling three times on Friday, then their rebound momentum slowed down.
Among non-US currencies, the day before the Bank of Japan announced its monetary policy decision, the yen fell for two days after rising for three days in a row. The dollar maintained gains against the yen during the European and American trading session on Monday. The US stock market hit a new high of 143.20, and rose more than 0.7% during the day, continuing to break away from the low since July 31, which was set by falling below 141.00 last Thursday; the euro rebounded against the US dollar on Friday and rose above 1.0930 to a new daily high on 29. It rose more than 0.3% during the day before the US stock market, rising by more than 0.3% during the day. There is still a distance; GBP/USD in US stocks In the intraday period, it fell below 1.2630 to a new daily low. It fell nearly 0.4% during the day, and continued to fall from the high since August 22, which was close to 1.2800 last Thursday.
Crude oil fell more than 1% in the intraday period and then turned upward and rebounded to a two-week high
Although international crude oil futures declined during the intraday period on Monday, they turned upward without risk, maintaining the rebound momentum. When the European stock market turned down to a new daily low before the market, US WTI crude oil fell below 70.70 US dollars, fell 1.1% during the day, Brent crude oil fell below 75.80, and the intraday decline was slightly more than 1%. European stocks maintained gains after the initial turnaround. When the US stock market first changed its daily high in early trading, US oil was close to 74.30 US dollars, with an intraday increase of extremely close to 4%, and crude oil rose above 79.50 US dollars. It has gradually recovered more than half of its gains since then.
In the end, crude oil leveled off two consecutive declines on Friday. WTI crude oil futures for January closed up 1.04 US dollars, or 1.46%, to 72.47 US dollars/barrel; Brent's February crude oil futures closed up 1.40 US dollars, or 1.83%, to 77.95 US dollars/barrel. Both US oil and US oil hit new closing highs since December 4.
U.S. gasoline and natural gas futures have been rising for four consecutive days. NYMEX January gasoline futures closed up about 1% to $2.1,590 per gallon, breaking the highest level since November 30 at $2.1,758; NYMEX January gas futures closed up 0.48% to $2.5030 per million British thermal units, and on the two days to a new high since the December 8 report of $2.581.
Lun Nickel fell nearly 4%, Lun Aluminum rose five times in a row, gold rebounded, futures were approaching a one-week high
London basic metals futures were mostly down on Monday. Lun Nickel, which led the decline, fell close to 3.8%, falling to the high since mid-November created when it rose above 17,000 US dollars on Friday. He and Lun lead both ended two days of continuous gains. Lun lead bid farewell to the nearly two-week high level. Lundong and Lunxi fell for two consecutive days, continuing to fall from their highs since the beginning of December and nearly two months, respectively. Meanwhile, Lun Aluminum rose more than 1%, rising to a high level for six weeks from five days to early November, while Lun Zinc rose three times in a row to its highest level since the end of November.
New York gold futures, which had declined during trading on Friday, rebounded slightly. The US stock market reached a new daily high of 2,048 US dollars in midday trading, rising 0.6% during the day. Spot gold was close to $2,034 and hit a new daily high in the midday trading of the US stock market. It rose nearly 0.7% during the day, and is still far from the high since December 4, which was close to $2,048 last Thursday.
In the end, COMEX February gold futures, which stopped rising two times on Friday, closed up 0.24% to $20,40.5 per ounce, approaching the closing high since December 7, set after rising above $2,040 last Thursday.
Editor/Corrine