Global macroscopic
Before Monday's market, the three major indices collectively rose
US stocks are expected to reach new highs next year! Goldman Sachs raised the S&P 500 forecast to 5,100 points
Goldman Sachs analyst David Kostin said that the dovish policy adopted by the Federal Reserve last week, combined with falling consumer inflation, will lead to a decline in real yields while supporting stock market valuations. Kostin expects the S&P 500 index to reach 5,100 points by the end of next year — a target point that is nearly 9% higher than its forecast of 4,700 points in mid-November. Goldman Sachs strategists said, “The stock market has already reflected positive economic activity, but now it reflects a stronger outlook.” Kostin also said that since a relaxed financial environment should boost US economic activity and corporate profits, his forecast of a 5% year-on-year increase in earnings in 2024 may be too pessimistic.
Fed Officials Come Out to “Fight the Fire”: It's Still Too Early to Consider Cutting Interest Rates
Chicago Federal Reserve Chairman Goulsby said that it is still too early to announce the Fed's victory in fighting inflation, and interest rate cuts will be based on upcoming economic data. Two Fed officials also tried to ease market expectations on Friday, saying it is still too early for policymakers to consider cutting interest rates. “We're not really talking about interest rate cuts,” New York Federal Reserve Chairman Williams said on Friday, adding that it is “too early” to say that the Fed will cut interest rates in March next year. Next year's FOMC voting committee member and Atlanta Fed Chairman Bostic said he would be wary of cutting interest rates too soon.
“Throw cold water” on expectations of interest rate cuts! UBS CEO: I don't believe the major central banks have controlled inflation
UBS CEO Sergio Ermotti said he doesn't believe that the major central banks have controlled inflation. He said, “One thing I've learned is don't try to predict the next few months — it's almost impossible. Despite this, I still don't believe inflation is actually under control at this stage.” He added: “The trend seems to be positive, but we'll have to see if it continues. If the inflation rate in all major economies is close to the 2% target, the policies of the major central banks may relax slightly. Being flexible is important in this environment.”
Former FDIC chairman warns that the Fed's dovism has triggered “irrational prosperity” in the market, and market optimism may be excessive
Sheila Bair, the former chairman of the US Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), recently warned that the market is too optimistic that interest rates may be cut next year. He said that Fed Chairman Powell irresponsibly showed a dovish stance at last week's policy meeting, which created “irrational prosperity” among investors. He stated, “The focus still needs to be on inflation. There is still a long way to go in this fight. I'm really worried that they (the Fed) are a bit hesitant and are now trying to turn around and worry about the recession, yet so far I haven't seen any such risk in the data.”
The Red Sea shipping attack became the focus of the market
After the US said it had shot down 14 drones launched under the control of the Iran-backed Houthis, Egypt's Suez Canal Authority said it was “paying close attention” to the tense situation in the Red Sea in the Yemeni region. Robert Rennie, head of commodity and carbon research at Westpac, said the key focus remains supply, and U.S. crude oil production will set a new record by the end of this year. Although logistics and transportation costs will rise, it is currently uncertain whether the heightened tension in the Red Sea will have a substantial impact on oil prices. European gas futures rose as much as 7% due to disruptions in Red Sea shipping.
Hot news
Most of Star Technology's stocks fell before the market
NIO's US stock rose nearly 10% before the market, receiving a new round of strategic investment of US$2.2 billion from CYVN in Abu Dhabi
$NIO Inc (NIO.US)$U.S. stocks rose nearly 10% in the premarket. According to the news, NIO announced on the 18th that it has signed a new round of share subscription agreements with Abu Dhabi investment agency CYVN Holdings. CYVN Holdings will make a total strategic investment of about 2.2 billion US dollars in NIO in the form of cash through its subsidiary CyVN Investments. After the completion of this investment, NIO and CYVN will continue to jointly develop strategic and technical cooperation in the international market. In July of this year, CYVN completed a total strategic investment of about 1.1 billion US dollars through targeted issuance of new shares and transfer of old shares.
New Oriental surged nearly 10% in the pre-market period. Dong Yuhui became the cultural assistant to the chairman of New Oriental and is also the vice president of cultural tourism
$New Oriental (EDU.US)$US stocks surged nearly 10% before the market; according to news, Yu Minhong appointed Dong Yuhui as cultural assistant to the chairman of New Oriental Education Technology Group and also as the vice president of New Oriental Cultural Tourism Group. Also, Dongfang Selection announced on the 17th that the company dismissed Sun Dongxu as CEO, and Yu Minhong, the company's chairman, also served as CEO. Furthermore, the official Douyin account of Oriental Selection released a live broadcast announcement stating that Yu Minhong and Dong Yuhui will broadcast live at 8 p.m. on the 18th. The event poster shows that Dong Yuhui's status has become “Senior Partner of Oriental Selection.”
The dust settled on Dong Yuhui's whereabouts, and the high road plummeted 23% before the market
A high road where “profits” continued to soar unexpectedly due to Dong Yuhui's essay incident$Gaotu Techedu (GOTU.US)$As the dust settled on Dong Yuhui's whereabouts, US stocks plummeted nearly 23% to $3.58 before the market today. According to the latest news, Yu Minhong appointed Dong Yuhui as the cultural assistant to the chairman of New Oriental Education Technology Group and also as the vice president of New Oriental Cultural Tourism Group. Also, Oriental Selection posted a live preview on the Douyin platform, showing that Dong Yuhui's status has changed to “Oriental Selection Senior Partner.” Earlier, Yu Minhong said in a live broadcast that Dong Yuhui will definitely have a voice in the future.
US Steel rose nearly 30% before the market, and Nippon Steel plans to buy it at a 40% premium
$United States Steel (X.US)$It rose nearly 30% before the market. Nippon Steel will acquire American Steel in an all-cash transaction of $55.00 per share, which is equivalent to an equity value of about US$14.1 billion. In addition to the debt to be assumed, the total value of the company is US$14.9 billion. The purchase price of $55.00 per share is 40% superior to America Steel's closing price on December 15, 2023. The deal has been unanimously approved by the boards of Nippon Steel and US Steel.
Shipping stocks continued to strengthen before the market, shipping risks in the Red Sea region increased, and freight costs may jump
$ZIM Integrated Shipping (ZIM.US)$The sharp rise of more than 5% led, and the stock had been rising for 3 consecutive days.$Golden Ocean (GOGL.US)$An increase of more than 3%,$Himalaya Shipping (HSHP.US)$Keep up with the rise. According to the news, recently, the Red Sea-Mander Strait is not very peaceful, and commercial ships have already been attacked. Mediterranean Shipping, the world's largest shipping group, and France Flyship, the third largest shipping company, announced on Saturday that they have suspended the Red Sea routes of their ships. Analysts expect freight prices to soar in the short term, while higher transportation costs will eventually hit consumers.
J.P. Morgan: Mainland e-commerce platforms are gaining momentum, Pinduoduo is preferred
According to a report issued by J.P. Morgan, as of November this year, online retail sales in the mainland increased 11% year on year to nearly 14 trillion yuan. Since the beginning of the year, the online penetration rate of physical product sales has reached a record high of 27.5%, even up 0.3 percentage points from the same period last year. However, the online penetration rate surged last year due to the pandemic. This shows that compared to offline retailers, e-commerce platforms are gaining momentum. The bank's first choice in this industry remains$PDD Holdings (PDD.US)$, followed by$Vipshop (VIPS.US)$, and then$Alibaba (BABA.US)$,$JD.com (JD.US)$.
Empower AI and cloud computing! IBM to buy two software AG data platforms for $2.3 billion
$IBM Corp (IBM.US)$It said on Monday that it will use 2.13 billion euros (about 2.33 billion US dollars) in cash to acquire the enterprise technology platform Streamsets and WebMethods of Software AG, Europe's largest system software supplier. IBM said in the announcement that the acquisition further proves IBM's deep focus and investment in artificial intelligence and hybrid cloud. Streamsets will add data acquisition capabilities to IBM's artificial intelligence and data platform WatsonX, while WebMethods will provide customers and partners with additional integration and API management tools for hybrid multi-cloud environments.
Novo Nordisk's largest shareholder invests $265 million in vaccine research
$Novo-Nordisk A/S (NVO.US)$The largest shareholder, the Novo Nordisk Foundation (Novo Nordisk Foundation), has invested up to 1.8 billion kroner (265 million US dollars) in vaccine research in Denmark, and hopes to make more such large-scale investments in the future. The Novo Nordisk Foundation said the funding will be used to establish a research center to study vaccines for respiratory diseases such as tuberculosis and influenza. The center will be part of the University of Copenhagen. It will also establish a limited liability company to license and develop vaccine technology and coordinate clinical trials of promising vaccine candidates.
Focus on China Securities
The rise and fall of popular Chinese securities was mixed before the market
Top 20 pre-market turnover of US stocks
US Stock Macro Calendar Reminder
23:00 US December NAHB Real Estate Market Index
21:30 2023 FOMC voting committee member and Chicago Fed Chairman Goulsby was interviewed by CNBC
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