Investors were underwhelmed by the solid earnings posted by XMH Holdings Ltd. (SGX:BQF) recently. We did some digging and actually think they are being unnecessarily pessimistic.
Check out our latest analysis for XMH Holdings
A Closer Look At XMH Holdings' Earnings
In high finance, the key ratio used to measure how well a company converts reported profits into free cash flow (FCF) is the accrual ratio (from cashflow). The accrual ratio subtracts the FCF from the profit for a given period, and divides the result by the average operating assets of the company over that time. You could think of the accrual ratio from cashflow as the 'non-FCF profit ratio'.
Therefore, it's actually considered a good thing when a company has a negative accrual ratio, but a bad thing if its accrual ratio is positive. While having an accrual ratio above zero is of little concern, we do think it's worth noting when a company has a relatively high accrual ratio. Notably, there is some academic evidence that suggests that a high accrual ratio is a bad sign for near-term profits, generally speaking.
XMH Holdings has an accrual ratio of -0.38 for the year to October 2023. Therefore, its statutory earnings were very significantly less than its free cashflow. Indeed, in the last twelve months it reported free cash flow of S$40m, well over the S$9.36m it reported in profit. XMH Holdings' free cash flow improved over the last year, which is generally good to see.
Note: we always recommend investors check balance sheet strength. Click here to be taken to our balance sheet analysis of XMH Holdings.
Our Take On XMH Holdings' Profit Performance
As we discussed above, XMH Holdings' accrual ratio indicates strong conversion of profit to free cash flow, which is a positive for the company. Because of this, we think XMH Holdings' underlying earnings potential is as good as, or possibly even better, than the statutory profit makes it seem! And on top of that, its earnings per share have grown at an extremely impressive rate over the last year. The goal of this article has been to assess how well we can rely on the statutory earnings to reflect the company's potential, but there is plenty more to consider. If you want to do dive deeper into XMH Holdings, you'd also look into what risks it is currently facing. For example, we've found that XMH Holdings has 3 warning signs (1 is concerning!) that deserve your attention before going any further with your analysis.
Today we've zoomed in on a single data point to better understand the nature of XMH Holdings' profit. But there is always more to discover if you are capable of focussing your mind on minutiae. Some people consider a high return on equity to be a good sign of a quality business. So you may wish to see this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks that insiders are buying.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.